Provided is a method for estimating abrasion resistance of polymer composite materials. The present disclosure relates to a method for estimating abrasion resistance, the method including: irradiating a sulfur compound-containing polymer composite material with high intensity X-rays; measuring an X-ray absorption in a small region of the polymer composite material while varying an energy of the X-rays, whereby a dispersion state and a chemical state of the sulfur compound are analyzed; and quantifying an inhomogeneous state of cross-link degradation in the polymer composite material based on the dispersion state and the chemical state.