A hydraulic fracture design model that simulates the complex physical process of fracture propagation in the earth driven by the injected fluid through a wellbore. An objective in the model is to adhere with the laws of physics governing the surface deformation of the created fracture subjected to the fluid pressure, the fluid flow in the gap formed by the opposing fracture surfaces, the propagation of the fracture front, the transport of the proppant in the fracture carried by the fluid, and the leakoff of the fracturing fluid into the permeable rock. The models used in accordance with methods of the invention are typically based on the assumptions and the mathematical equations for the conventional 2D or P3D models, and further take into account the network of jointed fracture segments. For each fracture segment, the mathematical equations governing the fracture deformation and fluid flow apply. For each time step, the model predicts the incremental growth of the branch tips and the pressure and flow rate distribution in the system by solving the governing equations and satisfying the boundary conditions at the fracture tips, wellbore and connected branch joints. An iterative technique is used to obtain the solution of this highly nonlinear and complex problem.

In reservoir hydrocarbon exploration, fracture characteristics of subsurface reservoir formations are analyzed based on measures obtained about the subsurface formations and rock. Models of subsurface reservoirs are developed with predictions of natural fracture networks within the subject subsurface reservoirs. The mechanical properties of the formation rock in the reservoirs serve as a main controller to model the natural fractures distribution and their properties. The models so formed are important in the location and completion of wells for hydrocarbon exploration and production.

In reservoir hydrocarbon exploration, fracture characteristics of subsurface reservoir formations are analyzed based on measures obtained about the subsurface formations and rock. Models of subsurface reservoirs are developed with predictions of natural fracture networks within the subject subsurface reservoirs. The mechanical properties of the formation rock in the reservoirs serve as a main controller to model the natural fractures distribution and their properties. The models so formed are important in the location and completion of wells for hydrocarbon exploration and production.

System and methods of modeling casing deformation for hydraulic fracturing design are provided. A three-dimensional (3D) global model of a subsurface formation is generated. Values of material parameters for different points of the subsurface formation represented by the 3D global model are calculated based on a geomechanical analysis of well log data obtained for the subsurface formation. The calculated values are assigned to corresponding points of the global model. A 3D sub-model of a selected portion of the formation including a casing to be placed along a planned trajectory of a wellbore is generated based at least partly on the values assigned to the global model. Numerical damage models are applied to the global model and sub-model to simulate effects of a hydraulic fracturing treatment on the formation and casing along the planned wellbore trajectory. Casing deformation along the planned wellbore trajectory is estimated, based on the simulation.

System and methods of modeling casing deformation for hydraulic fracturing design are provided. A three-dimensional (3D) global model of a subsurface formation is generated. Values of material parameters for different points of the subsurface formation represented by the 3D global model are calculated based on a geomechanical analysis of well log data obtained for the subsurface formation. The calculated values are assigned to corresponding points of the global model. A 3D sub-model of a selected portion of the formation including a casing to be placed along a planned trajectory of a wellbore is generated based at least partly on the values assigned to the global model. Numerical damage models are applied to the global model and sub-model to simulate effects of a hydraulic fracturing treatment on the formation and casing along the planned wellbore trajectory. Casing deformation along the planned wellbore trajectory is estimated, based on the simulation.

A workflow is provided that characterizes the hydraulic fracturability of a rock based on properties obtained from CT scanning and from non-CT based data. The characterization is based on obtaining a plurality of properties of a core sample as a function of axial location in the core sample. The workflow includes obtaining CT data from at least one CT scan of the core, obtaining heterogeneity data of the core, generating a heterogeneous rock analysis (HRA) model based at least on the obtained CT data and heterogeneity data; quantifying statistically significant distinct rock classes in the core, and assigning hydraulic fracturability index (HFI) values to each distinct rock class, as well as any HFI variation within each rock class. An HFI value is assigned to each rock class, and within a rock class, in the core and those values can be propagated to other locations in the same or surrounding wells.

A method for optimizing a well production forecast includes a) inputting initial production rate measurements made at selected times, b) inputting probability distributions to estimate production forecast model parameters, c) generating an initial forecast of fluid production rates and total produced fluid volumes using a selected production forecast model, d) at a time after a last one of the selected times, comparing the initial forecast with actual production rate and total produced fluid volume measurements to generate an error measurement, e) adjusting parameters of the selected production forecast model to minimize the error measurement, thereby generating an adjusted production forecast model, f) repeating (d) and (e) for a plurality of iterations to generate a plurality of production forecast models each having a determined likelihood of an error measurement and displaying the plurality of production forecast models with respect to likelihood of error.