An abnormality determination device according to the present invention comprises a measuring means that measures a plurality of factors affecting the quality of a product produced in a production facility, a control unit, and a storage unit, wherein the storage unit stores: a causal relationship model that specifies a causal relationship among the factors on the basis of features calculated from the factors when normal products are produced at the production facility; a predictive formula that accepts at least one of the features as input and outputs another feature different from the input on the basis of the causal relationship model; and a predicted range of the output. The control unit is configured to determine whether the feature obtained as the output is within the predicted range from among the features calculated from the factors measured in the production process of the production facility.