Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for determining causal models for controlling environments. One of the methods includes obtaining data specifying baseline probability distributions for each of a plurality of controllable elements; maintaining a causal model; repeatedly performing the following: selecting control settings for the environment based on the causal model and values for a particular internal parameter of the control system that are sampled from a range of possible values; selecting control settings for the environment based on the baseline probability distributions; monitoring environment responses to the control settings selected based on the causal model and the control settings selected based on the baseline probability distributions; determining, for each of the possible values, a measure of a difference between a current system performance and a baseline system performance; and updating how frequently each of the possible values is sampled.

Processing of data relating to energy usage. First data relating to energy usage is loaded for analysis by an energy management platform. Second data relating to energy usage is stream processed by the energy management platform. Third data relating to energy usage is batch parallel processed by the energy management platform. Additional computing resources, owned by a third party separate from an entity that owns the computer system that supports the energy management platform, are provisioned based on increasing computing demand. Existing computing resources owned by the third party are released based on decreasing computing demand.

Accessing an energy management policy for a plurality of devices is described, wherein the devices are coupled with a first structure. The energy usage of the devices is monitored. An energy usage rule and energy usage is then compared. The energy management policy and energy usage is also compared. Based on the comparing, an instruction is generated to modify an energy usage profile of said device to correlate with the energy usage rule associated with the devices and the energy management policy, thereby enabling efficient energy management.

A system may provide virtual energy audits of one or more target buildings. The system may retrieve weather data and energy usage data specific to a given target building from a weather server and a utility server, respectively. The system may store predefined building characteristics corresponding to the given target building in local memory. Based on the weather data, energy usage data, and/or predefined building characteristics, the system may generate one or more building markers that characterize the energy usage and efficiency of the given target building. Building efficiency diagnostics and energy conservation prognostics may be generated based on the building markers and may be sent by the system to be displayed via a user interface of a client device. The energy conservation prognostics may include one or more energy conservation measure recommendations and corresponding predicted cost/energy savings.

Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for optimizing operations of a supply chain. In one aspect, the method comprises repeatedly performing the following: i) selecting a configuration of input settings for operating a supply chain, based on a causal model that measures causal relationships between input settings and a measure of success of the supply chain; ii) determining the measure of success of the supply chain operated using the configuration of input settings; and iii) adjusting, based on the measure of success of the supply chain operated using the configuration of input settings, the causal model.

Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for determining causal models for controlling environments. One of the methods includes obtaining data specifying baseline probability distributions for each of a plurality of controllable elements; maintaining a causal model; repeatedly performing the following: selecting control settings for the environment based on the causal model and values for a particular internal parameter of the control system that are sampled from a range of possible values; selecting control settings for the environment based on the baseline probability distributions; monitoring environment responses to the control settings selected based on the causal model and the control settings selected based on the baseline probability distributions; determining, for each of the possible values, a measure of a difference between a current system performance and a baseline system performance; and updating how frequently each of the possible values is sampled.

A method of optimizing a plurality of control signals used in operating a vehicle is described. The operation has a plurality of associated measurable parameters. The method includes: for each control signal, selecting a plurality of potential optimum values from a predetermined set; operating the vehicle in at least a first sequence of operation iterations, where for each pair of sequential first and second operation iterations in the first sequence of operation iterations, the potential optimum value of one control signal in the first operation iteration is replaced in the second operation iteration with a next potential optimum value of the control signal, while the potential optimum values of the remaining control signals are maintained; for each operation iteration, measuring each parameter in the plurality of measurable parameters; and generating confidence intervals for the control signals to determine causal relationships between the control signals and the measurable parameters.

A method of performing a process using a plurality of control signals and resulting in a plurality of measurable outcomes is described. The method includes optimizing the plurality of control signals by at least: receiving a plurality of process constraints; receiving, for each measurable outcome, an optimum range; receiving, for each control signal, a plurality of potential optimum values; iteratively performing the process, where for each process iteration, the value of each control signal is selected from among the plurality of potential optimum values received for the control signal; for each process iteration, measuring each outcome in the plurality of measurable outcomes; and generating confidence intervals for the control signals to determine a causal relationship between the control signals and the measurable outcomes. The method includes performing the process using at least the control signals determined by the causal relationship to causally affect at least one of the measurable outcomes.

Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for determining causal models for controlling environments. One of the methods includes identifying a procedural instance; determining a temporal extent for the procedural instance based on temporal extent parameters for the one or more entities in the procedural instance; selecting control settings for the procedural instance; monitoring environment responses to the control settings that are received for the one or more entities; determining which of the environment responses to attribute to the procedural instance in a causal model; and adjusting, based at least in part on the environment responses that are attributed to the procedural instance, the temporal extent parameters for the one or more entities.

Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for determining causal models for controlling environments. One of the methods includes identifying a procedural instance; selecting control settings for the procedural instance, comprising, for a particular one of the controllable elements: assigning the procedural instance to a cluster for the particular controllable element in accordance with current values of a set of clustering parameters for the particular controllable element; and selecting a setting for the particular controllable element for the procedural instances based on a causal model that is specific to the cluster; obtaining environment responses to the selected control settings that define a value of the performance metric for the procedural instance; and updating, for the particular controllable element, the causal model for the cluster for the controllable element to which the procedural instance was assigned based on the value of the performance metric.