A duty cycle heating portion of a drying cycle is initiated, in which a heating element of the clothes dryer is cycled on and off. An average baseline value is established for one or more of peak exhaust temperature of exhaust temperature of the clothes dryer or peak evaporation rate of evaporation rate of the clothes dryer. The duty cycle heating portion is continued until a peak delta between current exhaust temperature or the evaporation rate and the average baseline value exceeds a predefined threshold difference. The dryer transitions from the duty cycle heating portion to a continuous heating portion of the drying cycle, in which the heating element of the clothes dryer is continuously powered. The heating element is disengaged responsive to one or more criteria indicating completion of the drying cycle.