SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR PREDICTIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND INTERVENTION
20230005623 · 2023-01-05
Inventors
- Lorece Edwards (Windsor Mill, MD, US)
- Lawrence Brown (Baltimore, MD, US)
- Sabriya Dennis (Abingdon, MD, US)
- Ian Lindong (Baltimore, MD, US)
Cpc classification
G16H20/00
PHYSICS
G16H10/60
PHYSICS
International classification
G16H50/30
PHYSICS
G16H10/60
PHYSICS
Abstract
Disclosed is a system and method for predictive risk assessment and intervention including a risk assessment unit that receives survey data from a remotely connected survey device. The survey data comprises information about the social and cultural environment of one or more members of a risk population, including the member's perceptions of their social and environmental factors, the member's demographic data, and optionally publicly available data associated with the member's geographic environment. A predictive risk assessment unit analyzes perceived risk hierarchy inventories to generate a risk portfolio for each surveyed member of the population, which risk portfolio may include a risk predictive quotient profile for each such member assigning a numeric value indicating a likelihood of that member engaging in certain negative activities, a recommendation of interventions that are determined to reduce the likelihood of such member engaging in those negative activities, and preferably a record of success and/or failure of various interventions in reducing that risk. Intervention partners then administer the interventions to the surveyed members, record the success or failure of such intervention in preventing the identified dangerous behavior, and transmit an intervention effectiveness report to the predictive risk assessment unit. The predictive risk assessment unit may then modify and recalibrate the survey instrument and the associated recommended intervention products and tools to maximize the successes of interventions.
Claims
1. A computer method for predictive risk assessment and intervention, comprising the steps of: providing a predictive risk assessment unit having a processor and a memory; providing a remote, portable survey device in data communication with said predictive risk assessment unit; transmitting from said predictive risk assessment unit to said survey device a first digital predictive risk assessment survey and displaying said first digital predictive risk assessment survey on said survey device; receiving at said predictive risk assessment unit from said survey device a digital perceived risk hierarchy inventory associated with a human risk population member; analyzing at said processor of said predictive risk assessment unit said digital perceived risk hierarchy inventory to identify one or more intervention products that are calculated to mitigate one or more negative or harmful behaviors associated with said perceived risk hierarchy inventory; generating and storing in said memory an individual risk portfolio associated with said human risk population member, said individual risk portfolio including said one or more intervention products; transmitting from said predictive risk assessment unit to an intervention partner computer said individual risk portfolio including said one or more intervention products; applying by a user of said intervention partner computer said intervention products to said human risk population member; receiving at said predictive risk assessment unit from said intervention partner computer a numeric assessment of success in applying said one or more intervention products in said individual risk portfolio to said human risk population member; in response to receiving said numeric assessment of success in applying said one or more intervention products in said individual risk portfolio to said human risk population member, recalibrating at said predictive risk assessment unit statistical values applied by said predictive risk assessment unit when analyzing said digital perceived risk hierarchy inventory; transmitting from said predictive risk assessment unit to said survey device a modified digital predictive risk assessment survey that has been modified in response to said recalibrating at said predictive risk assessment unit and displaying said modified digital predictive risk assessment survey on said survey device; transmitting from said predictive risk assessment unit to said intervention partner computer a modified individual risk portfolio comprising a modified selection of said intervention products that has been generated in response to said recalibrating at said predictive risk assessment unit and displaying said modified selection of said intervention products; and applying by said user of said intervention partner computer said modified intervention products to said human risk population member.
2. A computer system for predictive assessment and intervention, comprising: a predictive risk assessment unit having a processor and a memory; a remote, portable survey device in data communication with said predictive risk assessment unit; an intervention partner computer in data communication with said predictive risk assessment unit; wherein said processor of said predictive risk assessment unit includes computer instructions configured to: transmit to said survey device a first digital predictive risk assessment survey and display said first digital predictive risk assessment survey on said survey device; receive from said survey device a digital perceived risk hierarchy inventory associated with a human risk population member; analyze said digital perceived risk hierarchy inventory to identify one or more intervention products that are calculated to mitigate one or more negative or harmful behaviors associated with said perceived risk hierarchy inventory; generate and store in said memory an individual risk portfolio associated with said human risk population member, said individual risk portfolio including said one or more intervention products; transmit to an intervention partner computer said individual risk portfolio including said one or more intervention products; instruct a user of said intervention partner computer to apply said intervention products to said human risk population member; receive from said intervention partner computer a numeric assessment of success in applying said one or more intervention products in said individual risk portfolio to said human risk population member; in response to receiving said numeric assessment of success in applying said one or more intervention products in said individual risk portfolio to said human risk population member, recalibrate statistical values applied by said predictive risk assessment unit when analyzing said digital perceived risk hierarchy inventory; transmit to said survey device a modified digital predictive risk assessment survey that has been modified in response to said recalibrating at said predictive risk assessment unit and display said modified digital predictive risk assessment survey on said survey device; transmit to said intervention partner computer a modified individual risk portfolio comprising a modified selection of said intervention products that has been generated in response to said recalibrating at said predictive risk assessment unit and display said modified selection of said intervention products; and instruct said user of said intervention partner computer to apply said modified intervention products to said human risk population member.
Description
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0012] The numerous advantages of the present invention may be better understood by those skilled in the art by reference to the accompanying drawings in which:
[0013]
[0014]
[0015]
[0016]
DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0017] The invention summarized above may be better understood by referring to the following description, claims, and accompanying drawings. This description of an embodiment, set out below to enable one to practice an implementation of the invention, is not intended to limit the preferred embodiment, but to serve as a particular example thereof. Those skilled in the art should appreciate that they may readily use the conception and specific embodiments disclosed as a basis for modifying or designing other methods and systems for carrying out the same purposes of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should also realize that such equivalent assemblies do not depart from the spirit and scope of the invention in its broadest form.
[0018] Descriptions of well-known functions and structures are omitted to enhance clarity and conciseness. The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the present disclosure. As used herein, the singular forms “a”, “an” and “the” are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. Furthermore, the use of the terms a, an, etc. does not denote a limitation of quantity, but rather denotes the presence of at least one of the referenced items.
[0019] The use of the terms “first”, “second”, and the like does not imply any particular order, but they are included to identify individual elements. Moreover, the use of the terms first, second, etc. does not denote any order of importance, but rather the terms first, second, etc. are used to distinguish one element from another. It will be further understood that the terms “comprises” and/or “comprising”, or “includes” and/or “including” when used in this specification, specify the presence of stated features, regions, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, regions, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
[0020] Although some features may be described with respect to individual exemplary embodiments, aspects need not be limited thereto such that features from one or more exemplary embodiments may be combinable with other features from one or more exemplary embodiments.
[0021] To the knowledge of the inventors herein, the combination of perception, risk, and hierarchy have not previously been addressed in a manner that may be used to automatically connect factors addressing a risk population member's environment (e.g., an urban environment), the resultant risks that they face based on the cultural and social environment characteristics of that environment, and the interventions that may best mitigate those risks. The systems and methods employed herein are based upon a finding that emerging adults prioritize risk within their own framework for survival and success. The priority risk should be acknowledged, addressed, and satisfied so that the emerging adults can proceed to practice prevention, observe proper practices and behaviors, focus on positive short and long term goals, increase academic performance and attain educational goals, as well as maintain a positive orientation going forward. As disclosed in greater detail below, the perceived risk hierarchy inventory of a surveyed emerging adult member of the risk population is analyzed at a predictive risk assessment unit to develop a behavior risk profile and assessment and, based upon such behavior risk profile and assessment, automatically assign recommended intervention products that are determined to reduce the member's risk of engaging in harmful behavior. Such recommended intervention products (and preferably other elements of the risk population member's behavior risk profile and assessment) are transmitted to at least one intervention partner (e.g., educational institutions, community centers, hospitals, counselors, physician's offices, etc.) to allow that partner to use and track the success of intervention measures, and transmit back to the predictive risk assessment unit an intervention effectiveness report which may be used to further refine the automated analytical tools used to evaluate the member's risk of engaging in harmful behavior.
[0022]
[0023] Survey device 150 is preferably a remote computing device, such as a tablet, a laptop computer, a smartphone, or similarly configured readily portable computing device, configured for remote communication with predictive risk assessment unit 110. Survey device 150 is used to record responses from one or more members of risk population 152 at least relating to each such surveyed member's perceived risk hierarchy, and preferably also relating to certain demographic data relating to such surveyed member. Predictive risk assessment unit 110 preferably hosts a user interface 112 for survey data collection, which preferably receives a login request from survey device 150 and authenticates the user (e.g., through password entry or other such authentication methods as may be chosen by those skilled in the art) to predictive risk assessment unit 110. Predictive risk assessment unit 110 may receive a request from survey device 150 for a survey from survey database 114, and may transmit a digital survey to survey device 150 for administering to the member of risk population 152. Preferably, the digital survey includes survey questions that solicit the population member's perception of various cultural and social factors in their day-to-day environment, in addition to certain demographic data relating to that risk population member. The digital survey may thus collect experiential perception profile data, including (by way of non-limiting example) data indicative of the risk population member's perception of and exposure to police contact, negative community experiences (e.g., HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases, mental health impairment, substance abuse, community violence, etc.). The digital survey may additionally collect individual demographic profile data, including (by way of non-limiting example) data indicative of the risk population member's employment status (e.g., unemployed, employed part-time, employed full-time), education level (e.g., high school, college, post-graduate education), zip code (or smaller geographic designation), voter registration status, age, gender, sexual orientation, and church attendance. Of course, other experiential perception profile data and demographic profile data may be included in the digital survey as may be preferably for a given risk population, which may be readily determined by persons skilled in the art.
[0024] The data collected by the digital survey may form a perceived risk hierarchy inventory 154 that may be transmitted from survey device 150 to predictive risk assessment unit 110 through user interface 112, and risk assessment unit 110 may generate and store in data memory an individual risk portfolio 116 for the surveyed risk population member 152 that includes the member's perceived risk hierarchy inventory 154 (i.e., their experiential perception profile data and demographic profile data). Optionally, predictive risk assessment unit 110 may supplement the member's individual risk portfolio 116 with existing public data that may be geospatial in nature (e.g., publicly available community demographic data), which may be helpful to further determine interrelationships among various cultural and social factors that may affect a risk population member's likelihood of engaging in dangerous or high-risk behaviors.
[0025] Using statistical analytical methods as may be selected and customized by those skilled in the art, a risk determination engine 118 may analyze the surveyed member's experiential perception profile data and demographic profile data collected in their individual risk profile 116, and may generate a risk predictive quotient matrix 156 for a variety of risk segments for that risk population member 152. By way of non-limiting example, the risk segments may include sexual health factors (e.g., HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases and teen pregnancy), mental health factors (e.g., substance abuse, suicide and depression), and violence and injury factors (e.g., gun violence, domestic violence and child abuse). Once generated, the risk predictive quotient for that risk population member 152 may then be added to and stored with the member's individual risk portfolio 116.
[0026] As shown in
[0027] Preferably, a database of risk factors and associations 120 is provided that defines interrelationships among the various risk factors that are analyzed by risk determination engine 118, which interrelationships are preferably expressed in an index that can be displayed in tabular form or graphically, as in (by way of non-limiting example) a Geographical Information System (GIS). Such database of risk factors and associations 120 may be updated through ongoing direct contact with risk population members 152. More particularly, through direct contact with residents of multiple neighborhoods, inter-relationships between variations of perceived risks versus profile data may be used to define and continuously update thresholds that can be displayed in a tabular fashion, in a “heat map,” or in such other visual presentation as may be preferred by those skilled in the art.
[0028] With continuing reference to
[0029] With further reference to
[0030] Based upon the results of the intervention product/tool 119 applied to the respective risk population member 152 (as evidenced by the numeric score assigned to such intervention product/tool 119), and as part of a feedback process, intervention engine 122 may make further adjustments in weightings applied to the risk segments 157 in the risk population member's predictive quotient matrix 156. Questions in the survey applied by survey device 150 may be added or subtracted to change particular weights assigned to various elements of the digital perceived risk hierarchy inventory 154, and different statistical methods or algorithms may be applied to the analysis by intervention engine 122. Moreover, as part of an ongoing data collection effort, predictive risk assessment unit 110 may carry out further iterations to reflect the new line of questions that will be posed to the risk population. Still further, as part of the feedback process, the results of the adjustments in weighting made by intervention engine 122 may be compared to actual results of a given intervention product/tool 119 to validate the risk index/probability assessment.
[0031] Next,
[0032] Those skilled in the art will recognize that each of predictive risk assessment unit 110, survey device 150, and intervention partners 180 may each take the form of computer system 400 as reflected in
[0033] Computer system 400 includes a communications bus 402, or other communications infrastructure, which communicates data to other elements of computer system 400. For example, communications bus 402 may communicate data (e.g., text, graphics, video, other data) between bus 402 and an I/O interface 404, which may include a display, a data entry device such as a keyboard, touch screen, mouse, or the like, and any other peripheral devices capable of entering and/or viewing data as may be apparent to those skilled in the art. Further, computer system 400 includes a processor 406, which may comprise a special purpose or a general purpose digital signal processor. Still further, computer system 400 includes a primary memory 408, which may include by way of non-limiting example random access memory (“RAM”), read-only memory (“ROM”), one or more mass storage devices, or any combination of tangible, non-transitory memory. Still further, computer system 400 includes a secondary memory 410, which may comprise a hard disk, a removable data storage unit, or any combination of tangible, non-transitory memory. Finally, computer system 400 may include a communications interface 412, such as a modem, a network interface (e.g., an Ethernet card or cable), a communications port, a PCMCIA slot and card, a wired or wireless communications system (such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Infrared, and the like), local area networks, wide area networks, intranets, and the like.
[0034] Each of primary memory 408, secondary memory 410, communications interface 412, and combinations of the foregoing may function as a computer usable storage medium or computer readable storage medium to store and/or access computer software including computer instructions. For example, computer programs or other instructions may be loaded into the computer system 400 such as through a removable data storage device (e.g., a floppy disk, ZIP disks, magnetic tape, portable flash drive, optical disk such as a CD, DVD, or Blu-ray disk, Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (“MEMS”), and the like). Thus, computer software including computer instructions may be transferred from, e.g., a removable storage or hard disc to secondary memory 410, or through data communication bus 402 to primary memory 408.
[0035] Communication interface 412 allows software, instructions and data to be transferred between the computer system 400 and external devices or external networks. Software, instructions, and/or data transferred by the communication interface 412 are typically in the form of signals that may be electronic, electromagnetic, optical or other signals capable of being sent and received by communication interface 412. Signals may be sent and received using a cable or wire, fiber optics, telephone line, cellular telephone connection, radio frequency (“RF”) communication, wireless communication, or other communication channels as will occur to those of ordinary skill in the art.
[0036] Computer programs, when executed, allow processor 406 of computer system 400 to implement the methods discussed herein for predictive risk assessment and intervention according to computer software including instructions.
[0037] Computer system 400 may perform any one of, or any combination of, the steps of any of the methods described herein. It is also contemplated that the methods according to the present invention may be performed automatically, or may be accomplished by some form of manual intervention.
[0038] The computer system 400 of
[0039] Further, computer system 400 may, in certain implementations, comprise a handheld device and may include any small-sized computing device, including by way of non-limiting example a cellular telephone, a smartphone or other smart handheld computing device, a personal digital assistant, a laptop or notebook computer, a tablet computer, a hand held console, an MP3 player, or other similarly configured small-size, portable computing device as may occur to those skilled in the art.
[0040] As explained above, the system of
[0041] That client computer also preferably includes a communications interface, such as a modem, a network interface (e.g., an Ethernet card), a communications port, a PCMCIA slot and card, wired or wireless systems, and the like. The communications interface allows communication through transferred signals between the client computer and external devices including networks such as the Internet and a cloud data center. Communication may be implemented using wireless or wired capability, including (by way of non-limiting example) cable, fiber optics, telephone line, cellular telephone, radio waves or other communications channels as may occur to those skilled in the art.
[0042] Such client computer establishes communication with the one more servers via, for example, the Internet, to in turn establish communication with one or more cloud data centers that implement predictive risk assessment and intervention system 100. A cloud data center may include one or more networks that are managed through a cloud management system. Each such network includes resource servers that permit access to a collection of computing resources and components of predictive risk assessment and intervention system 100, which computing resources and components can be invoked to instantiate a virtual computer, process, or other resource for a limited or defined duration. For example, one group of resource servers can host and serve an operating system or components thereof to deliver and instantiate a virtual computer. Another group of resource servers can accept requests to host computing cycles or processor time, to supply a defined level of processing power for a virtual computer. Another group of resource servers can host and serve applications to load on an instantiation of a virtual computer, such as an email client, a browser application, a messaging application, or other applications or software.
[0043] The cloud management system may comprise a dedicated or centralized server and/or other software, hardware, and network tools to communicate with one or more networks, such as the Internet or other public or private network, and their associated sets of resource servers. The cloud management system may be configured to query and identify the computing resources and components managed by the set of resource servers needed and available for use in the cloud data center. More particularly, the cloud management system may be configured to identify the hardware resources and components such as type and amount of processing power, type and amount of memory, type and amount of storage, type and amount of network bandwidth and the like, of the set of resource servers needed and available for use in the cloud data center. The cloud management system can also be configured to identify the software resources and components, such as type of operating system, application programs, etc., of the set of resource servers needed and available for use in the cloud data center.
[0044] In accordance with still further aspects of an embodiment of the invention, a computer program product may be provided to provide software to the cloud computing environment. Computer products store software on any computer useable medium, known now or in the future. Such software, when executed, may implement the methods according to certain embodiments of the invention. By way of non-limiting example, such computer usable mediums may include primary storage devices (e.g., any type of random access memory), secondary storage devices (e.g., hard drives, floppy disks, CD ROMS, ZIP disks, tapes, magnetic storage devices, optical storage devices, MEMS, nanotech storage devices, etc.), and communication mediums (e.g., wired and wireless communications networks, local area networks, wide area networks, intranets, etc.). Those skilled in the art will recognize that the embodiments described herein may be implemented using software, hardware, firmware, or combinations thereof.
[0045] The cloud computing environment described above is provided only for purposes of illustration and does not limit the invention to this specific embodiment. It will be appreciated that those skilled in the art are readily able to program and implement the invention using any computer system or network architecture.
[0046] Having now fully set forth the preferred embodiments and certain modifications of the concept underlying the present invention, various other embodiments as well as certain variations and modifications of the embodiments herein shown and described will obviously occur to those skilled in the art upon becoming familiar with said underlying concept. It should be understood, therefore, that the invention may be practiced otherwise than as specifically set forth herein.