TECHNOLOGY MATURITY JUDGMENT METHOD AND SYSTEM BASED ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DATA

Abstract

A technology maturity judgment method based on science and technology data comprises establishing a database, an algorithm library, and an index library, and further comprises: performing a data retrieval in the database; performing a data calculation and organization on a retrieval result; performing a regression calculation on organized data to obtain a technical maturity index; and obtaining a judgment conclusion according to the technical maturity index. The technology maturity judgment method is mainly based on a patent analysis method, which assisted by technical data analysis of papers and projects. Technical points are placed in a technology cluster associated with the technology to perform a comprehensive analysis by multi-dimensional evaluation indexes and algorithm. Mapping between science and technology data indexes and technology maturity is established and automatic judgment is achieved. The method does not need a large amount of artificial subjective work.

Claims

1. A technology maturity judgment method based on science and technology data, comprising establishing a database, an algorithm library and an index library, wherein the technology maturity judgment method further comprises following steps: step 1: performing a data retrieval in the database; step 2: performing a data calculation and organization on a retrieval result; step 3: performing a regression calculation on organized data to obtain a technical maturity index; and step 4: obtaining a judgment conclusion according to the technical maturity index.

2. The technology maturity judgment method according to claim 1, wherein the database is a multi-dimensional science and technology database, and the multi-dimensional science and technology database comprises at least one of a patent library, a paper library, a project library, and a news library; the algorithm library comprises at least one of a science and technology knowledge graph and a technical cluster, and the science and technology knowledge graph and the technology cluster are configured for defining technical points, technology clusters, and related technical content; and indexes in the index library comprise at least one index of a technical influence, a technical influence immediacy, and a technology proportion of a core node patent.

3. The technology maturity judgment method according to claim 2, wherein step 1 further comprises following sub-steps: step 11: inputting the names of technical points to be analyzed and evaluated by using the science and technology knowledge graph to determine a plurality of keyword semantics of features of the technical points to be analyzed and evaluated through a relationship and a step distance between the technical points to be analyzed and evaluated; step 12: performing an overall data retrieval for the keyword semantics obtained in step 11 in the paper library, the project library, and the news library; step 13: intersecting the keyword semantics obtained in step 11 with the technology cluster, performing an overall data retrieval for a result of intersection in the patent library; and step 14: integrating data retrieval results of step 12 and step 13.

4. The technology maturity judgment method according to claim 3, wherein step 2 further comprises following sub-steps: step 21: performing data cleaning and disambiguation for at least one objective data in patents, papers, and projects, and performing a computer emotion calculation for non-objective data in news to calculate an authenticity and retain a reliable result; step 22: drawing a basic coordinate graph according to different vertical coordinates, wherein an abscissa of the basic coordinate graph represents time, and an ordinate represents at least one of a number of patent applications, a number of granted patents, a number of partition papers, a number of partition projects, and the news; and step 23: drawing a reference coordinate graph according to the different vertical coordinates, wherein an abscissa of the reference coordinate graph represents time, and an ordinate represents at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy, and the core node patent.

5. The technology maturity judgment method according to claim 4, wherein step 3 further comprises following sub-steps: step 31: fitting a curve f.sub.1(x)=a.sub.1x+b.sub.1, wherein x is time, f.sub.1(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy, and the core node patent, a.sub.1 is a change slope corresponding to the at least one index, and b.sub.1 is a curve intercept; step 32: fitting a curve f.sub.2 (x)=a.sub.2x.sup.2+b.sub.2x+c, wherein x is time, f.sub.2(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy, and the core node patent, a.sub.2 is a growth rate of the change slope corresponding to the at least one index, b.sub.2 is a fitting liner term parameter, and c is a curve intercept; and step 33: fitting a model of the curve with reference to a least square method.

6. The technology maturity judgment method according to claim 5, wherein the judgment conclusion further comprises determining that the technology maturity is among one of the following stages: a germination stage, a growth stage, a mature stage, and a decline stage.

7. The technology maturity judgment method according to claim 6, wherein the technology maturity is determined as the germination stage when an ordinate data body in the basic coordinate graph is the number of partition papers, and the germination stage includes an early germination stage and a germination to growth stage; wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the early germination stage when determination conditions below are met: 1) the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent, or the technical influence of patent is zero but the technical influence of paper is a positive value; and 2) a.sub.1 is greater than 1, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in curves of the technical influence of paper; wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the germination to growth stage when the determination conditions below are met: 1) the papers gradually transition from SCI papers to EI papers, and the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent; 2) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence of paper, and a growth rate is decreased; 3) a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0 in curves of the technical influence immediacy of paper; 4) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in curves of the technical influence of patent; and 5) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in curves of the core node patent; wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the growth stage when the determination conditions below are met: 1) a number of EI papers exceeds a number of SCI papers in ordinate data bodies in the basic coordinate graph; 2) a growth rate of patent data tends to be stable, the technical influence of patent gradually approaches the technical influence of paper, and the technology proportion of the core node patent rises; 3) a.sub.1 is close to 0 in the curve of the technical influence of paper; 4) a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0 in the curves of the technical influence immediacy of paper; 5) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence of patent; 6) a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence immediacy of patent; and 7) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 gradually in the curve of the core node patent; wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the mature stage when the determination conditions below are met: 1) the patent data exceeds paper data in the ordinate data bodies in the basic coordinate graph, and the patent data in the basic coordinate graph tends to be stable, and an engineering research project and news data begin to appear; 2) in the reference coordinate graph, the technical influence of patent exceeds the technical influence of paper, the technical influence immediacy is lower than that in the germination stage, and the technology proportion of the core node patent tends to be stable; 3) a.sub.1 is less than 0 in the curve of the technical influence of paper; 4) a.sub.1 is less than 0 in the curve of the technical influence immediacy of paper; 5) a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence of patent; 6) a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence immediacy of patent; and 7) a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is less than 0 in the curves of the core node patent; and wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the decline stage when the determination conditions below are met: 1) the news data is a main data body, and both the patent data and the paper data fall; 2) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of the technical influence of paper; 3) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of the technical influence of patent; and 4) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of the core node patent.

8. A technology maturity judgment system based on science and technology data, comprising a database, an algorithm library, and an index library, and further comprises: a data retrieval module configured to perform a data retrieval in the database; a data organization module configured to perform a data calculation and organization on a retrieval result; a data calculation module configured to perform a regression calculation on organized data to obtain a technical maturity index; and a summarizing and determining module configured to obtain a judgment conclusion according to the technical maturity index.

9. The technology maturity judgment system according to claim 8, wherein the database is a multi-dimensional science and technology database, and the multi-dimensional science and technology database comprises at least one of a patent library, a paper library, a project library, and a news library; wherein the algorithm library comprises at least one of a science and technology knowledge graph and a technical cluster, and the science and technology knowledge graph and the technology cluster are configured for defining technical points, technology clusters, and related technical content; and wherein indexes in the index library comprise at least one index of a technical influence, a technical influence immediacy, and a technology proportion of a core node patent.

10. The technology maturity judgment system according to claim 9, wherein the data retrieval module comprises following sub-modules: an overall retrieval sub-module configured to input the names of the technical points to be analyzed and evaluated by using the science and technology knowledge graph to determine a plurality of keyword semantics of features of the technical points to be analyzed and evaluated through a relationship and a step distance between the technical points to be analyzed and evaluated; a data mining sub-module configured to perform overall data retrieval for the keyword semantics obtained by the overall retrieval sub-module in the paper library, the project library, and the news library; a specified retrieval sub-module configured to intersect the keyword semantics obtained by the overall retrieval sub-module with the technology cluster and perform overall data retrieval for a result of intersection in the patent library; and an integration sub-module configured to integrate data retrieval results of the data mining sub-module and the specified retrieval sub-module.

11. The technology maturity judgment system according to claim 10, wherein the data organization module further comprises following sub-modules: a data cleaning sub-module configured to perform data cleaning and disambiguation for at least one objective data in patents, papers, projects, and perform a computer emotion calculation for non-objective data in news to calculate an authenticity and retain a reliable result; a graph drawing sub-module configured to draw a basic coordinate graph according to different vertical coordinates, wherein an abscissa of the basic coordinate graph represents time, and an ordinate represents at least one of a number of patent applications, a number of granted patents, a number of partition papers, a number of partition projects, and the news; and a graph revising sub-module configured to draw a reference coordinate graph according to different vertical coordinates, wherein an abscissa of the reference coordinate graph represents time, and an ordinate represents at least one of index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy, and the core node patent.

12. The technology maturity judgment system according to claim 8, wherein an operation of the data calculation module further comprises following steps: step 31: fitting a curve f.sub.1(x)=a.sub.1x+b.sub.1, wherein x is time, f.sub.1(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy, and the core node patent, a.sub.1 is a change slope corresponding to the at least one index, and b.sub.1 is a curve intercept; step 32: fitting a curve f.sub.2(x)=a.sub.2x.sup.2+b.sub.2x+c, wherein x is time, f.sub.2(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy, and the core node patent, a.sub.2 is a growth rate of the change slope corresponding to the at least one index, b.sub.2 is a fitting liner term parameter, and c is a curve intercept; and step 33: fitting a model of the curve with reference to a least square method.

13. The technology maturity judgment system according to claim 12, wherein the judgment conclusion further comprises determining the technology maturity is in among one of the following stages: a germination stage, a growth stage, a mature stage, and a decline stage.

14. The technology maturity judgment system according to claim 13, wherein the technology maturity is determined as the germination stage when an ordinate data body in the basic coordinate graph is the number of partition papers, and the germination stage includes an early germination stage and a germination to growth stage; wherein the technology maturity is determine to be in the early germination stage when determination conditions below are met: 1) the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent, or the technical influence of patent is zero but the technical influence of paper is a positive value; and 2) a.sub.1 is greater than 1, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in the curves of the technical influence of paper; wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the germination to growth stage when the determination conditions below are met: 1) the papers gradually transition from SCI papers to EI papers, and the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent; 2) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence of paper, and a growth rate is decreased; 3) a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0 in curves of the technical influence immediacy of paper; 4) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in curves of the technical influence of patent; and 5) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in curves of the core node patent.

15. The technology maturity judgment system according to claim 13, wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the growth stage when the determination conditions below are met: 1) a number of EI papers exceeds a number of SCI papers in ordinate data bodies in the basic coordinate graph; 2) a growth rate of patent data tends to be stable, the technical influence of patent gradually approaches the technical influence of paper, and the technology proportion of the core node patent rises; 3) a.sub.1 is close to 0 in the curve of the technical influence of paper; 4) a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0 in the curves of the technical influence immediacy of paper; 5) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence of patent; 6) a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence immediacy of patent; and 7) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 gradually in the curves of the core node patent; wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the mature stage when the determination conditions below are met: 1) the patent data exceeds paper data in the ordinate data bodies in the basic coordinate graph, and the patent data in the basic coordinate graph tends to be stable, and an engineering research project and news data begin to appear; 2) in the reference coordinate graph, the technical influence of patent exceeds the technical influence of paper, the technical influence immediacy is lower than that in the germination stage, and the technology proportion of the core node patent tends to be stable; 3) a.sub.1 is less than 0 in the curve of the technical influence of paper; 4) a.sub.1 is less than 0 in the curve of the technical influence immediacy of paper; 5) a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence of patent; 6) a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of the technical influence immediacy of patent; and 7) a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is less than 0 in the curves of the core node patent; and wherein the technology maturity is determined to be in the decline stage when the determination conditions below are met: 1) the news data is a main data body, and both the patent data and the paper data fall; 2) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of the technical influence of paper; 3) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of the technical influence patent; and 4) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of the core node patent.

Description

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0039] FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a preferred embodiment of a technology maturity judgment method based on science and technology data according to the present invention.

[0040] FIG. 1A is a flowchart of a data retrieval method of the embodiment shown in FIG. 1 of the technology maturity judgment method based on science and technology data according to the present invention.

[0041] FIG. 1B is a flowchart of a data organization method of the embodiment shown in FIG. 1 of the technology maturity judgment method based on science and technology data according to the present invention.

[0042] FIG. 1C is a flowchart of a data regression calculation method of the embodiment shown in FIG. 1 of the technology maturity judgment method based on science and technology data according to the present invention.

[0043] FIG. 2 is a module diagram of a preferred embodiment of a technology maturity judgment system based on science and technology data according to the present invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0044] Further description of the present invention is provided below with reference to specific embodiments and drawings.

Embodiment 1

[0045] As shown in FIG. 1, step 100 is executed to establish a database, an algorithm library and an index library. The database is a multi-dimensional science and technology database, and the multi-dimensional science and technology database comprises at least one of a patent library, a paper library, a project library and a news library; the algorithm library includes a science and technology knowledge graph and/or a technical cluster, and the science and technology knowledge graph and/or the technology cluster is used for defining technical points, technology clusters and related technical content thereof; indexes in the index library include at least one of a technical influence index, a technical influence immediacy index, and technology proportion of core node patent.

[0046] Step 110 is executed to perform data retrieval in the database. As shown in FIG. 1A, step 111 is executed to input the names of the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated by using the existing science and technology knowledge graph, and determine a plurality of keyword semantics of features of the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated through a relationship and a step distance between the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated. Step 112 is executed to perform overall data retrieval for the keyword semantics obtained in the step 111 in the paper library, the project library, and the news library. Step 113 is executed to intersect the keyword semantics obtained in the step 111 with the existing technology cluster, and perform overall data retrieval for a result of intersection in the patent library. Step 114 is executed to integrate data retrieval results of the step 112 and the step 113.

[0047] Step 120 is executed to perform data calculation and organization on the retrieval result. As shown in FIG. 1B, step 121 is executed to perform data cleaning and disambiguation for at least one objective data in the patents, the papers, and the projects using existing method, and perform computer emotion calculation for non-objective data in the news to calculate an authenticity and retain reliable result using existing method. Step 122 is executed to draw a basic coordinate graph according to different vertical coordinates, the abscissa of the basic coordinate graph is time, and the ordinate is at least one of the numbers of patent applications, the number of granted patents, the number of partition papers, the number of partition projects and the news. Step 123 is executed to draw a reference coordinate graph according to different vertical coordinates, the abscissa of the reference coordinate graph is time, and the ordinate is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy and the core node patent.

[0048] Step 130 is executed to perform regression calculation on organized data to obtain a technical maturity index. As shown in FIG. 1C, step 131 is executed to fit a curve f.sub.1(x)=a.sub.1x+b.sub.1, wherein x is time, f.sub.1(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy and the core node patent, a.sub.1 is a change slope corresponding to the index, and b.sub.1 is a curve intercept. Step 132 is executed to fit a curve f.sub.2(x)=a.sub.2x.sup.2+b.sub.2x+c, wherein x is time, f.sub.2 (x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy and the core node patent, a.sub.2 is a growth rate of the change slope corresponding to the index, b.sub.2 is a fitting liner term parameter, and c is a curve intercept. Step 133 is executed to fit a model of the curve with reference to a general method of least square method.

[0049] Step 140 is executed to obtain a judgment conclusion according to the technical maturity index. The judgment conclusion includes determining a stage the technology maturity is among the following stages: a germination stage, a growth stage, a mature stage, and a decline stage. A method of the judgment is as follows.

[0050] 1. It is determined as the germination stage when an ordinate data body in the basic coordinate graph is the number of partition papers, and the germination stage includes an early germination stage and a germination to growth stage.

[0051] 1.1. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the early germination stage when determination conditions below are met:

1) the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent, or the technical influence of patent is zero but the technical influence of paper is a positive value;
2) a.sub.1 is greater than 1, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in the curves of technical influence of paper.

[0052] 1.2. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the germination to growth stage when the determination conditions below are met:

1) the papers gradually transition from SCI papers to EI papers, and the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent;
2) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of technical influence of paper, and a growth rate is decreased;
3) a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0 in the curves of technical influence immediacy of paper;
4) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in the curves of technical influence of patent;
5) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in the curves of core node patent.

[0053] 2. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the growth stage when the determination conditions below are met:

1) the number of EI paper exceeds the number of SCI paper in the ordinate data bodies in the basic coordinate graph;
2) a growth rate of patent data tends to be stable, the technical influence of patent gradually approaches the technical influence of paper, and the proportion of core node patent rises;
3) a.sub.1 is close to 0 in the curve of technical influence of paper;
4) a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0 in the curves of technical influence immediacy of paper;
5) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of technical influence of patent;
6) a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of technical influence immediacy of patent;
7) a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 gradually in the curve of core node patent.

[0054] 3. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the mature stage when the determination conditions below are met:

1) the patent data exceeds paper data in the ordinate data bodies in the basic coordinate graph, and the patent data in the basic coordinate graph tends to be stable, and engineering research project and news data begin to appear;
2) in the reference coordinate graph, the technical influence of patent exceeds the technical influence of paper, the technical influence immediacy is lower than that in the germination stage, and the technology proportion of core node patent tends to be stable;
3) a.sub.1 is less than 0 in the curve of technical influence of paper;
4) a.sub.1 is less than 0 in the curve of technical influence immediacy of paper;
5) a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of technical influence of patent;
6) a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0 in the curves of technical influence immediacy of patent;
7) a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is less than 0 in the curves of core node patent.
4. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the decline stage when the determination conditions below are met:
1) the news data is a main data body, and both the patent data and the paper data fall;
2) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of technical influence of paper;
3) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of technical influence of patent;
4) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of core node patent.

Embodiment 2

[0055] As shown in FIG. 2, a technology maturity judgment system based on science and technology data comprises a database 200, an algorithm library 210, an index library 220, a data retrieval module 230, a data organization module 240, a data calculation module 250 and a summarizing and determining module 260.

[0056] The database 200 is a multi-dimensional science and technology database, and the multi-dimensional science and technology database comprises at least one of a patent library, a paper library, a project library and a news library.

[0057] The algorithm library 210 includes a science and technology knowledge graph and/or a technical cluster, and the science and technology knowledge graph and/or the technology cluster is used for defining technical points, technology clusters and related technical content thereof.

[0058] Indexes in the index library 220 include at least one of a technical influence index, a technical influence immediacy index, and technology proportion core node patent.

[0059] The data retrieval module 230 is used for performing data retrieval in the database, and includes the following sub-modules:

an overall retrieval sub-module: used for inputting the names of the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated by using the existing science and technology knowledge graph, and determining a plurality of keyword semantics of features of the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated through a relationship and a step distance between the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated;
a data mining sub-module: used for performing overall data retrieval for the keyword semantics obtained by the overall retrieval sub-module in the paper library, the project library, and the news library;
a specified retrieval sub-module: used for intersecting the keyword semantics obtained by the overall retrieval sub-module with the existing technology cluster, performing overall data retrieval for a result of intersection in the patent library;
an integration sub-module: used for integrating data retrieval results of the data mining sub-module and the specified retrieval sub-module.

[0060] The data organization module 240 is used for performing data calculation and organization on a retrieval result, and includes the following sub-modules:

a data cleaning sub-module: used for performing data cleaning and disambiguation for at least one objective data in the patents, the papers, the projects, and performing computer emotion calculation for non-objective data in the news to calculate an authenticity and retain a reliable result;
a graph drawing sub-module: used for drawing a basic coordinate graph according to different vertical coordinates, the abscissa of the basic coordinate graph being time, and the ordinate being at least one of the number of patent applications, the number of granted patents, the number of partition papers, the number of partition projects and the news;
a graph revising sub-module: used for drawing a reference coordinate graph according to different vertical coordinates, the abscissa of the reference coordinate graph being time, and the ordinate being at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy and the core node patent.

[0061] The data calculation module 250 is used for performing regression calculation on organized data to obtain a technical maturity index. An operation of the data calculation module includes the following steps:

step 31: fitting a curve f.sub.1(x)=a.sub.1x+b.sub.1, wherein x is time, f.sub.1(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy and the core node patent, a.sub.1 is a change slope corresponding to the index, and b.sub.1 is a curve intercept;
step 32: fitting a curve f.sub.2(x)=a.sub.2x.sup.2+b.sub.2x+c, wherein x is time, f.sub.2(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy and the core node patent, a.sub.2 is a growth rate of the change slope corresponding to the index, b.sub.2 is a fitting liner term parameter, and c is a curve intercept;
step 33: fitting a model of the curve with reference to a general method of least square method.

[0062] The summarizing and determining module 260 is used for obtaining a judgment conclusion according to the technical maturity index. The judgment conclusion includes the following several cases.

[0063] 1. It is determined as a germination stage when an ordinate data body in the basic coordinate graph is the number of partition papers, and the germination stage includes an early germination stage and a germination to growth stage.

[0064] 1.1. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the early germination stage when determination conditions below are met:

[0065] 1.2. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the germination to e growth stage when the determination conditions below are met:

[0066] 2. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the growth stage when the determination conditions below are met:

[0067] 3. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the mature stage when the determination conditions below are met:

[0068] 4. It is determined that the technology maturity is in the decline stage when the determination conditions below are met:

1) the news data is a main data body, and both the patent data and the paper data fall;
2) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of technical influence of paper;
3) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of technical influence of patent;
4) a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the curve of core node patent.

Embodiment 3

[0069] The present invention is mainly based on the patent analysis method, and assisted by technical data analysis of as papers, projects and the like, technical points are placed in a technology cluster associated with the technology to perform comprehensive analysis by multi-dimensional evaluation indexes and algorithm. Mapping between science and technology data indexes and technology maturity is established, automatic judgment is achieved, and the method is different from a traditional expert review method and the like which need a large amount of artificial subjective work, and the method is more objective and authentic.

[0070] Technical solution of the present invention overcomes the defects of the existing evaluation methods, especially the subjectivity of experts. A provided technology maturity judgment method based on science and technology data of patent and the like is with more objective and authentic, can realize semi-automatic calculation by a machine, and includes the following steps.

[0071] Step 1: establish a database, an algorithm library and an index library.

[0072] The step 1 includes the following sub-steps:

step 11: establishing a multi-dimensional science and technology database which covers a patent library, a paper library (be partitioned, and includes SCI and EI), a project library (be partitioned, and includes basic research projects, application research projects and industry promotion projects), and a news library;
step 12: establishing the algorithm library which covers a science and technology knowledge graph and a technical cluster, comprehensively defines intension and extension of technical points and the technology clusters, and quantifies mutual influence nodes of technology;
step 13: establishing the index library which covers a patent index, a paper index, a project index, a news index;
the step 13 includes the following indexes:
technical influence: obtained by normalization of citations of paper and patent and rank of referrers in the technical cluster, and includes the technical influence of patent and the technical influence of paper;
technical influence immediacy: indicating average time of the technical influence of patent and the technical influence of paper;
technology proportion of core node patent: indicating a value proportion of influence of patent for designated technology in the same technical cluster which is calculated using a complex technology network algorithm under technical cluster.

[0073] Step 2: construct a search strategy, and perform data retrieval in the multi-dimensional science and technology database in the step 11.

[0074] The step 2 includes the following sub-steps:

step 21: inputting the names of the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated by using the existing science and technology knowledge graph, and determining a plurality of keyword semantics of features of the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated through a relationship and a step distance between the technical points to-be-analyzed and evaluated;
step 22: performing overall data retrieval for the keyword semantics obtained in the step 21 in the paper library, the project library, and the news library;
step 23: intersecting the keyword semantics obtained in the step 21 with the existing technology cluster, performing overall data retrieval for a result of intersection in the patent library;
step 24: integrating data retrieval results of the step 22 and the step 23.

[0075] Step 3: perform data calculation and organization.

[0076] The step 3 includes the following sub-steps:

step 31: using an existing method to perform data cleaning and disambiguation for at least one objective data in the patents, the papers, and the projects, and perform computer emotion calculation for non-objective data in the news to calculate an authenticity and retain a reliable result;
step 32: drawing a basic coordinate graph, the abscissa of the basic coordinate graph being time, and the ordinate being at least one of the number of patent applications, the number of granted patent, the number of partition papers, the number of partition projects, and the news;
the number of partition papers is specifically interpreted as:
the number of partition papers mainly comprises the number of SCI papers and the number of EI papers, wherein, the SCI papers refer to citation index publications published by the United States Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), and 3300 science and technology journals are selected from the world wide variety of journals relating to more than 100 fields of natural basic science. The EI papers refer to documents listed in the Engineering Index Database in the global scope, and mainly include important documents in the field of engineering technology;
step 33: drawing a reference coordinate graph, the abscissa of the reference coordinate graph being time, and the ordinate being at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy, and the core node patent.

[0077] Step 4: perform regression calculation.

[0078] The step 4 includes the following sub-steps:

step 41: fitting a curve f.sub.1(x)=a.sub.1x+b.sub.1, wherein x is time, f.sub.1(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy and the core node patent, a.sub.1 is a change slope corresponding to the index, and b.sub.1 is a curve intercept;
step 42: fitting a curve f.sub.2(x)=a.sub.2x.sup.2+b.sub.2x+c, wherein x is time, f.sub.2(x) is at least one index of the technical influence, the technical influence immediacy and the core node patent, a.sub.2 is the growth rate of the change slope corresponding to the index, b.sub.2 is a fitting liner term parameter, and c is a curve intercept;
step 43: fitting a model of the curve with reference to a general method of least square method, i.e. the following general method:

for f(x)=Σ.sub.k=0.sup.ne.sub.ix.sup.k(i=1,2, . . . ,m;k=0,1,2, . . . ,n),

residual error of the curve is

[00001] $I = {.Math.}_{i = 0}^{m} {[f (x_{i}) - y_{i}]}^{2} = {.Math.}_{i = 0}^{m} {({.Math.}_{k = 0}^{n} e_{i} x^{k} - y_{i})}^{2} = \min$

partial derivative of e.sub.1 for I is calculated to be 0, resulting in:

[00002] $\frac{\partial I}{\partial e_{i}} = 2 {.Math.}_{i = 0}^{m} ({.Math.}_{k = 0}^{n} e_{i} x^{k} - y_{i}) x_{i}^{j} = 0, j = 0, 1, .Math. n$

a transformation obtained is:

[00003] ${.Math.}_{i = 0}^{m} ({.Math.}_{k = 0}^{n} x^{k + j}) = {.Math.}_{k = 0}^{n} x_{i}^{j} y_{i}, j = 0, 1, .Math. n$

the above equations are solved to obtain a unique solution, and then the fitting curve f(x) is determined.

[0079] Step 5: as shown in Table 1, according to indexes, a conclusion is obtained as follows.

[0080] It is determined as a germination stage when an ordinate data body in the basic coordinate graph is paper data.

[0081] It is determined that it is in an early germination stage when the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent, or the technical influence of patent is zero but the technical influence of paper is a positive value; and a.sub.1 is greater than 1, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0 in the curves of technical influence of paper. The early germination stage is similar to a basic research stage or a concept research stage of TRL1-2, the following judgment conditions need to be met: the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent, or the technical influence of patent is zero but the technical influence of paper is a positive value; and for regression curves of the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is greater than 1, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0.

[0082] A germination to growth stage is similar to an application analysis stage or a laboratory research stage of TRL3-4, and the following determination conditions need to be met: the papers gradually transition from the SCI papers to the EI papers, and the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent; for the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0, and a growth rate is decreased; for the technical influence immediacy of paper, a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0; for the technical influence of patent, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0; for the core node patent, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0.

[0083] It is determined as a growth stage when the number of EI papers exceeds the number of SCI papers in the ordinate data bodies in the basic coordinate graph, and a growth rate of patent data tends to be stable. At this moment, the technical influence of patent gradually approaches the technical influence of paper, and the proportion of core node patent rises; for the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is close to 0; for the technical influence immediacy of paper, a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0; for the technical influence of patent, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0; for the technical influence immediacy of patent, a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0; for the core node patent, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0.

[0084] It is determined as a mature stage when the patent data exceeds the paper data in the ordinate data bodies in the basic coordinate graph. At this moment, the patent data in the basic coordinate graph tends to be stable, and engineering research project and news data begin to appear, in the reference coordinate graph, the technical influence of patent exceeds the technical influence of paper, the technical influence immediacy is lower than that in the germination stage, and the technology proportion of core node patent tends to be stable; for the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is less than 0; for the technical influence immediacy of paper, a.sub.1 is less than 0; for the technical influence of patent, a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0; for the technical influence immediacy of patent, a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0; for the core node patent, a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is less than 0.

[0085] It is determined in a decline stage when the news data is a main data body, and both the patent data and paper data fall obviously. At this moment, for the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is less than −1; for the technical influence of patent, a.sub.1 is less than −1; for the core node patent, a.sub.1 is less than −1.

TABLE-US-00001 TABLE 1 Technology Technical Data body life cycle Data characteristics stage source level Research stage Germination It is determined that it is in an early germination Laboratory Paper data TRL1 Basic research stage stage when the technical influence of paper is stage (transition TRL2 Concept greater than the technical influence of patent, or from SCI to research the technical influence of patent is zero but the EI) TRL3 Application technical influence of paper is a positive value; Basic analysis and and a.sub.1 is greater than 1, and a.sub.2 is greater than research laboratory 0 in the curves of technical influence of paper. projects research The early germination stage is similar to a basic Engineering Patent data TRL4 Laboratory research stage or a concept research stage of stage Engineering prototype TRL1-2, the following judgment conditions research need to be met: project the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent, or the technical influence of patent is zero but the technical influence of paper is a positive value; and for regression curves of the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is greater than 1, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0. A germination to growth stage is similar to an application analysis stage or a laboratory research stage of TRL3-4, and the following determination conditions need to be met: the papers gradually transition from the SCI papers to the EI papers, and the technical influence of paper is greater than the technical influence of patent; for the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0, and a growth rate is decreased; for the technical influence immediacy of paper, a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than 0; for the technical influence of patent, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0; for the core node patent, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is greater than 0. Growth the technical influence of patent gradually TRL5 Complete stage approaches the technical influence of paper, and laboratory the proportion of core node patent rises; model machine for the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is close TRL6 System to 0; demonstration for the technical influence immediacy of paper, in simulation a.sub.1 is less than 0, a.sub.2 is close to 0 or greater than environment 0; Industrialization Patent data TRL7 System display for the technical influence of patent, a.sub.1 is stage Engineering in real greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than research environment 0; project for the technical influence immediacy of patent, News data a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0; for the core node patent, a.sub.1 is greater than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 Mature stag the patent data in the basic coordinate graph TRL8 Approval test tends to be stable; TRL9 Operation and engineering research project data and news data evaluation begin to appear; in the reference coordinate graph, the technical influence of patent exceeds the technical influence of paper; the technical influence immediacy is lower than that in the germination stage; the technology proportion of core node patent tends to be stable; for the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is less than 0; for the technical influence immediacy of paper, a.sub.1 is less than 0; for the technical influence of patent, a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0; for the technical influence immediacy of patent, a.sub.1 is less than 0, and a.sub.2 is close to 0 or less than 0; for the core node patent, a.sub.1 is close to or less than 0, and a.sub.2 is less than 0 Decline for the technical influence of paper, a.sub.1 is less News data stage than −1; for the technical influence of patent, a.sub.1 is less than −1; for the core node patent, a.sub.1 is less than −1 in the core node patent.

[0086] In order to better understand the present invention, the detailed description is made above in conjunction with the specific embodiments of the present invention, but it is not a limitation of the present invention. Any simple modification to the above embodiments based on the technical essence of the present invention still belongs to the scope of the technical solution of the present invention. Each embodiment in this specification focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same or similar parts between the various embodiments can be referred to each other. As for the system embodiment, since it basically corresponds to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant part can refer to the part of the description of the method embodiment.

TECHNOLOGY MATURITY JUDGMENT METHOD AND SYSTEM BASED ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DATA

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