Monitoring and risk index measuring system based on measured ecosystem services as a function of sectoral economic performance, and corresponding method
20230068107 · 2023-03-02
Assignee
Inventors
Cpc classification
International classification
Abstract
A measuring and monitoring system is proposed comprising a plurality of measuring sensors and measuring devices by means of which geographically cellularly delimited measuring parameters are acquired. The measuring parameters are aggregated to a BES index, wherein the measuring parameters are selected in relation to the desired measurement accuracy of the biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) index. The measuring and monitoring system comprises selectable, various biodiversity and ecosystem services at least comprising measuring parameters for measuring the habitat intactness and/or pollination and/or air quality and local climate and/or water security and/or water quality and/or soil fertility and/or erosion control and/or coastal protection and/or food provision and/or timber provision. The measuring and monitoring system further permits the quantitative acquisition/measurement of risk indices based on the measured ecosystem services as a function of sectoral economic services.
Claims
1. A measuring and monitoring system, comprising: a plurality of measuring sensors and measuring devices configured to acquire geographically cellularly delimited measuring parameters, the measuring sensors and measuring devices including in-situ measuring devices and/or EO (Earth Observation) measuring devices configured to measure values of atmospheric measuring parameters and/or values of maritime measuring parameters and/or values of land-based measuring parameters; and a central digital platform with a Core Engine and a persistent memory configured to: implement an aggregation module based on predefined parameterizations of BES (biodiversity and ecosystem services) indicators, the aggregation module storing measuring parameters acquired by the measuring sensors and measuring devices for measuring the BES indicators in the persistent memory and the measuring parameters being aggregated by parameterization of the BES indicators to quantitative values of a BES index for each of the BES indicators and/or a total value of a cumulative BES index, implement a correlation module including a plurality of parameterized stored production processes and production outputs with assigned correlation measuring indices, the correlation measuring indices measuring a dependency of a production process or a production output on the individual BES indices, respectively, and defined subsectors using average values for each of the BES indicators, determine and/or measure probability of occurrence values for an occurrence of damage events or reduction of production outputs on the basis of the BES index values, measured BES index values being weighted in relation to the production processes and production outputs using an average value of the correlation measuring indices for the individual parameterized BES indicators and an aggregated dependency of all of the BES indicators contained in the cumulative BES index, and determine and/or measure the probability of occurrence values for the occurrence of damage events or reduction of production outputs based on the measured and weighted, with respect to the production processes and production outputs using the correlation measuring indices, BES index values using the average value of the correlation measuring indices for the individual parameterized BES indicators and the aggregated dependency of all of the BES indicators contained in the cumulative BES index.
2. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein the BES indicators include at least measuring parameters for measuring at least one of: habitat intactness, pollination, air quality and local climate, water security, water quality, soil fertility, erosion control, coastal protection, food provision, and timber provision.
3. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 2, wherein indicator substances are measured as quantitative indicators for the air quality by the in-situ measuring devices, and the indicator substances include at least one of: content of nitrogen dioxide, fine dust and soot content, grit content, a proportion of non-transparent/opaque particles, dust ingredients comprising pollen, and sea salts.
4. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 2, wherein a quantitative measurement of the water quality is measured by the in-situ measuring devices by measuring at least one value of: electrical conductivity, and dissolved substances including hormones and/or fungicides and/or pesticides.
5. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein, for measurement, the BES indicators are selected and/or the selection thereof is varied until a defined measurement accuracy of one or more of the BES index values is attained.
6. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein the correlation module is configured to measure the correlation measuring index of each production process or production output, and by means of the cumulative BES index, all correlated BES indicators are acquired as a weighted average based upon at least: (i) a measured, average correlation measuring index, (ii) a measured maximum correlation measuring index, and (iii) a measured number of the correlated BES indicators, on which a respective production process or production output depends.
7. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 2, wherein a correlation measuring index for the water security and the timber provision are assigned a double weighting for generating the cumulative BES index.
8. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein the BES indicators contained in the BES indices are linked based on their measurement relevance to ENCORE (Exploring Natural Capital Opportunities, Risks and Exposure) services, are modified to their maximum measurability, and are weighted with respect to their correlation.
9. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 8, wherein the subsectors are based on a Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) of ENCORE.
10. The measuring and monitoring system according claim 1, wherein the subsectors include two or more hierarchic levels based on the NACE Rev2 (Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community) industry classification.
11. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 10, wherein for dependencies based on the classifications, discrete dependency values with values “slight”, “moderate,” and “high” are classified and discretized using terciles, and a dependency on sectors that lie in the upper tercile is assigned as “high” and a dependency on sectors that lie in the lower tercile is assigned as “low”.
12. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 11, wherein, for generating the dependency, further measuring parameters for measuring economic indicators are selected.
13. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 12, wherein the economic indicators are selectable at least partially from the economic indicators of Oxford Economics for various countries, and when the “value-added output in % of GDP” is selected, a contribution of each economic sector to the GDP is acquired by measurement and for each economic sector and each country, a weighted total of a dependency of the economic sectors on the BES index is generated and the weights comprise the measured share of each sector in the GDP of the country.
14. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 11, wherein the weighted dependency based on the terciles is classifiable in low, medium, and high.
15. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 2, wherein parameter data of the BES indicators of the food provision individually or with aggregation together are be aggregated on a BES index of the timber provision at all spatial levels for each of the BES indicators and are benchmarkable compared to others.
16. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 15, wherein the spatial levels include at least one of: towns, countries, cantons, federal states, nations, supranational entities, and spatial levels as NUTS-Il.
17. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 16, wherein the supranational entities include the European Union (EU).
18. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein the measurements for repeated measurement of the BES indicators and of the aggregation of the BES indicator include time series and/or regular monitoring.
19. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 1, wherein the central digital platform is configured to implement a multi-location analyses at a level of concrete GIS coordinates as unique address or km.sup.2 or zip codes and/or postcodes for identifying vulnerabilities in a value-added chain of enterprises against BES loss based on available company data.
20. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 19, wherein locations of the multi-location analyses include 1st tier and/or 2nd tier and/or 3rd tier suppliers.
21. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 19, wherein the multi-location analyses is carried out in conjunction with a dependency of an entrepreneurial activity and/or of a supplier based on the NACE classification, which is unambiguous for all entrepreneurial activity and the underlying dependency of the NACE classified activity on the BES indicators.
22. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 19, wherein the multi-location analyses includes aggregating data at an overall level of an enterprise and benchmarking compared to others.
23. The measuring and monitoring system according to claim 22, wherein the overall level of the enterprise comprises all production facilities including those of suppliers.
24. A measuring and monitoring method, comprising: acquiring, via a plurality of measuring sensors and measuring devices, geographically cellularly delimited measuring parameters, the measuring sensors and measuring devices including in-situ measuring devices and/or EO (Earth Observation) measuring devices configured to measure values of atmospheric measuring parameters and/or values of maritime measuring parameters and/or values of land-based measuring parameters; implementing an aggregation module based on predefined parameterizations of BES (biodiversity and ecosystem services) indicators, the aggregation module storing measuring parameters acquired by the measuring sensors and measuring devices for measuring the BES indicators in a persistent memory and the measuring parameters being aggregated by parameterization of the BES indicators to quantitative values of a BES index for each of the BES indicators and/or a total value of a cumulative BES index, implementing a correlation module including a plurality of parameterized stored production processes and production outputs with assigned correlation measuring indices, the correlation measuring indices measuring a dependency of a production process or a production output on the individual BES indices, respectively, and defined subsectors using average values for each of the BES indicators, measuring probability of occurrence values for an occurrence of damage events or reduction of production outputs based on measured BES index values relating to production processes and production outputs weighted using an average value of the correlation measuring indices for the individual parameterized BES indicators and an aggregated dependency of all of the BES indicators contained in the cumulative BES index.
Description
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0018] In the following, the present invention is explained in more detail on the basis of examples and referring to these drawings:
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DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS
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[0046] The measuring and monitoring system 1 comprises a central digital platform 3 with a core engine 30 and at least one persistent memory or storage unit 33. By means of an aggregation module 301, based on predefined parameterizations of BES indicators 3011, measuring parameters for measurement of the BES indicators 3011 are acquired by the measuring sensors and measuring devices 11 and stored in the persistent memory 33. By parameterization of the BES indicators 3011, the measuring parameters are aggregated to quantitative values of the BES index 302/3021/3022, for each of the BES indicators 3011 and/or a total value of BES index 303. The BES indicators 3011 may comprise e.g. at least measuring parameters for measuring the habitat intactness 30111 and/or pollination 30112 and/or air quality 30113 and local climate 30114 and/or water security 30115 and/or water quality 30116 and/or soil fertility 30117 and/or erosion control 30118 and/or coastal protection 30119 and/or food provision 30120 and/or timber provision 30121. For measurement of air quality, indicator substances may be measured, e.g. by means of the in-situ measuring devices 112, as quantitative indicators for the air quality 30113, wherein the indicator substances comprise at least the measured nitrogen dioxide content and/or fine dust and the soot content and/or grit content contained therein and/or the proportion of non-transparent/opaque particles and/or dust ingredients comprising pollen and/or sea salts. For quantitative measurement of water quality 30116, at least one value of electrical conductivity and/or dissolved substances comprising hormones and/or fungicides and/or pesticides may be measured, e.g. by means of the in-situ measuring devices 112. As an embodiment variant, for example for measurement, the BES indicators 3011 may be selected in such a way and/or selection thereof is varied in such a way, until a defined measurement accuracy of one or more BES index values 302/3021/3022 is reached.
[0047] The measuring and monitoring system 1 comprises a correlation module 304 with a plurality of parameterized stored production processes and production outputs 2 and with assigned correlation measuring indices 21. The respective correlation measuring indices 21/211 . . . 221 measure the dependency of a production process or production output 2 on the individual BES indices 302 in respective, defined subsectors using the average values for each BES indicator 3011. As an embodiment variant, for example the BES indicators 3011 comprised with the BES indices 302 may be linked on the basis of their measurement relevance with ENCORE data (Exploring Natural Capital Opportunities, Risks and Exposure) and may be modified to their maximum measurability and weighted with respect to their correlation. The subsectors may be based for example on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) of ENCORE. As a variant, the subsectors may comprise two or more hierarchic levels based on NACE Rev2 (Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community) industry classification. For the dependencies, for example based on the various classifications, discrete dependency values may be classified with the values “slight”, “moderate” and “high” and/or discretized using the stated terciles, wherein a dependency on sectors that lie in the upper tercile is assigned as “high” and in the lower tercile as “low”. Other, finer subdivisions are for example also possible. The weighted dependency may thus, for example, be classified based on the tertial into low, medium and high.
[0048] For example the correlation measurement index 21/211 . . . 221 of each production process or production output 20 may be measured by means of the correlation module 304. Moreover, for example by means of a cumulative BES index 303, all correlated BES indicators 3011 can be acquired or generated as a weighted average at least comprising the following three criteria: (i) the measured, average correlation measurement index 21/211 . . . 221, (ii) the measured maximum correlation measurement index 21/211 . . . 221, and the measured number of correlated BES indicators 3011, on which the respective production process or production output 20 depends. The performances, to be correlated and acquired or measured, of the production processes or production outputs 20 and the measured BES index values 302/3021 . . . 3031 for the BES indicators 3011 are acquired quantitatively, i.e. they are quantitative (measured) quantities. They are present in the inventive measuring and monitoring system 1 as independent observation pairs. In one embodiment variant, it may be assumed that the two quantities are distributed normally and the relationship investigated is linear. The correlation measuring indices 21/211 . . . 221 may then be generated/measured as correlation coefficients as a dimensionless measure for the strength of the relationship between the two quantitatively measured quantities of the production processes or production outputs 20 and the BES index values 302/3021 . . . 3031, i.e. as quantitative measurement correlation coefficients. Selecting of the production processes or production outputs 20 correlated with the BES indicators 3011 may, as an embodiment variant, take place by means of a machine-learning module during data analysis or data mining. Therefore a corresponding set can be extracted, e.g. from production processes or production outputs 20 or the BES indicators 3011, e.g. by means of supervised learning structures or unsupervised learning structures. This allows, inter alia, optimized data processing of the acquired measured data. As an embodiment variant, for example the correlation measuring indices 215/221 for water security and timber provision may be assigned a double weighting for generation of the cumulative BES index 303.
[0049] Based on the measured BES index values 302/3021 . . . 3031, for example by means of the measuring and monitoring system 1, probability of occurrence values or risk indices for the occurrence of damage events or reduction of production outputs 2 may be generated or measured, wherein the BES index values 302/3021 . . . 3031 are weighted with respect to the production processes and production outputs 2 by means of the assigned correlation measuring indices 21 using the average value of the correlation measuring indices 21 for the individual parameterized BES indicators 3011 and the aggregated dependency on all BES indicators 3011 contained in the cumulative BES index 303.
[0050] For generating the dependency, in a further embodiment variant, further measuring parameters may be selected for measuring economic indicators. The economic indicators may for example be selected at least partially from the sectoral economic indicators of Oxford Economics for various countries, wherein the “value-added output in % of GDP” is selected, which measures the contribution of each economic sector to the GDP and wherein for each economic sector and each country a weighted total of the dependency of the economic sectors on the BES index is generated and the weightings capture the measured share of each sector in the country's GDP.
[0051] As the system according to the invention shows, the technical measurement of risks starting from the measure of biodiversity and/or ecosystem services (BES) 61/611 . . . 621 is complex and technically demanding, as there is a massive underlying collection of risks, apart from the fact that the technical measurement of biodiversity (or of ecosystem services) as such already comprises a great technical challenge (see above). In order to make the measurement of risks technically possible, make them more efficient and in particular improve their measurement accuracy, starting from the prior art it is a technical challenge to provide a reliable, technically measurable measured variable or measurement index for biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES). The measurement index should also make it possible to measure what percentage of a country's ecosystems contribute what various levels (very low to very high) of ‘nature contributions to people’. The measurement index should also facilitate, or make possible for the first time, automated processes for incorporating risk-relevant BES factors in expert systems, measuring parameter-based triggering systems and signalling systems and generate BES-related benchmark measured quantities. Through the use of these global BES-relevant measured data, in addition industry and other interest groups are provided with new technical means for management of the processing process, operating, transfer and reputation risks associated with the decline of the BES. At the same time, the values of the measurement index parameters may also be used for development, control and signalling of technical processes, strategies and products and/or for protection of technical equipment, industries, enterprises, society and environment.
[0052] The destruction of the Aral Sea may serve as an example of the importance of technical measuring systems for precise monitoring and measurement of biodiversity/ecosystem measurement parameters and correlated risks for signalling and triggering corresponding warning systems or other automated systems. The virtual destruction of the Aral Sea shows the deep effects that an uncontrolled breakdown of an ecosystem can have on humans, industry and industrial processes and national economies. During the Soviet era, the Aral Sea was a thriving economy: thousands of people lived in the region and lived off the surrounding natural resources. The fishing industry supplied the country with almost two out of ten fishes, whereas water that fed the sea promoted agriculture. When this water was diverted for irrigating fields in other regions, the flows into the sea declined and it began to disappear. Today this sea has all but disappeared, despite restoration efforts. A high proportion of the sea sediments contain high concentrations of pesticides, which have accumulated over decades from the runoff from the land. The effects of this human-caused catastrophe are serious: the local economy and agriculture—and with them the species diversity in and around the sea and the islands—have collapsed. As a consequence, the vast majority of the population moved away, because the basis of their industry, economy and their livelihood had disappeared. The Aral Sea shows what happens when important ecosystem services collapse uncontrollably.
[0053] However, which ecosystem services are the most relevant for industry, in particular risk transfer technology and the insurance industry, e.g. for technical risk measurement, underwriting and establishment of the necessary risk capacity?
[0054] (a) Relevance of the BSE Index Value for Event-Triggered, Automated Systems, in Particular Risk-Based Systems
[0055] The risk transfer industry is dependent on functioning national economies, in which economic participants and other economically active units can produce technical property values (industrial plant etc.) and assets by activities that are worth protecting. If the operation of technical property values and assets of this kind is disturbed through the breakdown of ecosystems such as in the case of the Aral Sea or are interrupted and lost or must be given up, on the one hand this represents losses of long-term and not indirectly otherwise usable investment funds, on the other hand such a collapse may also have effects on other economically relevant branches of industry or regions. An analysis by the Dutch National Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank, DNB) in conjunction with the IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) indicates that this is not only possible, but also probable. Other more recent biodiversity-related studies of economic actors or political decision-makers underpin this further.
[0056] As shown in
[0057] In order to understand whether the ecosystem services (BES) 61 are measurably in decline, it is necessary to determine which ecosystem services and ecosystem factors/parameters are relevant and measurable at a particular place, and then their state has to be measured. The BES indices 302/3021 . . . 3031 were developed in order to develop this kind of measurement analysis. To understand whether the BES 61 are measurably in decline, it is necessary to determine, for the ten BES 61 in
[0058] In
[0059] (Automated) risk transfer technology, in particular insurance and reinsurance technology, is based on three principles: (i) risk selection: select risks that are technically measurable, parameterizable and detectable; (ii) risk management: the insured are expected to take cost-effective measures for risk management; and (iii) suitable risk pricing and/or resource allocation: insurance premiums reflect the residual risk after risk management, i.e. the measured degree of threat/probability of occurrence of the event with the extent of its impact, which remains after all efforts have been made for identifying and removing risks.
[0060] For implementation and machine-based application of these principles, the automated risk transfer disclosed here follows a data-based approach. The following is an outline of how this structure can be used as a basis for automated decisions of corresponding expert systems.
[0061] Measurement of the extent to which a risk is correlated with a BES decrease requires the following measured data and information: (i) Which ecosystem services (BES) are provided at the geographic site or cell, as risk site; (ii) What is the measured status of the BES at this site or geographic cell; (iii) How are the measured probabilities of the occurrence of damage and intensities, covered by a risk transfer, correlated with the BES or the status of the ecosystem services; and (iv) What is the possible role of investors and risk transfer systems in development, in order to develop nature-based solutions for improving the ecosystem services, which contribute to risk reduction. The BES index measurement unit 302/3021 . . . 3031 of the invention helps to answer these key questions. Consider the following example: A large coastal property is located in a hurricane region. The height above sea level is only 10 m, and the main danger, i.e. the measured probability for the occurrence of a physically measurable damage event, is storm surge. The BES 61, which determine whether the plot is heavily exposed to storm surge, is protection by coral reefs or mangrove forests along the coast. If intactness is high, the risk is transferable by a low resource allocation or premium. If it is low, the resource allocation or premium must be higher or the risk of the property is possibly not automatically transferable. If coral reefs or mangrove forests are destroyed, either a man-made storm surge protection will be necessary, or risk transfer cannot technically be offered automatically at all by a (financial) risk transfer system. This example illustrates a clear link between the measurable health of a relevant ecosystem 6 and its services (BES) 61 and the necessary resource allocation for adjusting the transferred level of risk, or costs and the availability of risk transfer for an object, e.g. a technical installation, property etc., its value and insurability dependent on the respective BES 61/611 . . . 621.
[0062] Measurement of storm surges may be given as an example of the physical measurability and measurement of such events. In the case of storm surges, for example measured data may be obtained from the wave channels and natural data of local measuring sensors. The results of the data analyses used here show that the shore profile development during a storm surge in large-scale, two-dimensional simulations can be simulated technically corresponding to nature. If a corresponding scale (1:1) is maintained both in reproduction of the profile form and the sediment properties, scale effects may be ignored. Model effects on the development of the shore profile caused by the storm surge can also be minimized technically, if the measurement and simulation parameters are established correspondingly. Only after conversion of the shore profile or a change in the measurement and simulation parameters, in the breaker zone there may be unnatural sand shifts from the side walls to the middle of the channel, and technical structures must be added to take them into account. The technical structures thus developed from the data analysis, together with the approaches developed for determining the break point and the height of wave run-up over sand shores show that in the region, defined by these two positions, of the largest hydrodynamic changes, the corresponding measurements are performed with sufficient measurement accuracy. Furthermore, added basic conditions relating to the extent and the required time points of the shore profile surveys allow a reduction of expenditure in performing the analysis of the measured data. On the basis of comparison of hydrodynamic and morphological data, a technical structure may finally be provided for determining the coastal-normal sediment transport rate. This is based, like the aforementioned technical structures for the break point and the height of wave run-up, on an almost unlimited number of simulation series with similar input parameters. Other events (earthquakes, tornadoes, drought etc.) would have to be to measured and simulated correspondingly.
[0063] Many examples could be given, linking specific ecosystem services (BES) 61/611 . . . 621 with transferable risks and activities. Additional examples are discussed in the following. Through technical application of the BES index measurement unit 302/3021 . . . 3031 to relevant risks, risk transfer portfolios can be measured for their BES exposure. The BES index 302/3021 . . . 3031 of the invention may also be relevant for company and government customers who are looking for a particular risk transfer, as it can be used technically for automated verification of sites for factories, warehouses and other objects that form part of supply chains. Corresponding expert system decisions in connection with the BES can be applied not only for risk transfer underwriting, but also for measuring an enterprise's resilience in the face of a decline of the BES. The use of the BES index measuring parameter or its measured value is not included here. Insurers can also use it to measure their exposure on the plant side—for example, the measurement index can be used for automatically minimizing exposure of investments to a worsening of the BES. The measurement index 302/3021 . . . 3031 of the invention also offers new possibilities for nature-based risk transfer solutions and investment opportunities.
[0064] In regions in which the ecosystem services are in decline, establishment of a financing mechanism for protection equipment through risk transfer and monetary resource allocation provide long-term protection and represent a sustainable investment opportunity for the future. Further current examples of the economic effects and consequences of damage and degradation of ecosystems:
[0065] 1. Loss of the Amazon forest has effects on (micro) climate, water supply, carbon storage and soil integrity. Deforestation affects water supply in Brazilian towns and neighbouring countries. It also affects the actual farms driving deforestation forward, and causes water scarcity and soil degradation. Further deforestation may also have effects on the global water supply.
[0066] 2. The insidious destruction of corals and mangroves in Sri Lanka has led to heavy coastal erosion and increasing destruction and loss of human life on land through storms and tsunamis, e.g. the earthquake and tsunami event of 26 Dec. 2004.
[0067] 3. The runoff of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) into rivers through agricultural practices in the water catchment area of the Mississippi in the USA causes every year, owing to algal blooms and oxygen deficiency, a dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, which leads to the collapse of prawn and oyster fishing (at least 300 million USD per year).
[0068] 4. Invasive species cost global agriculture approximately 540 USD billion annually, or the US economy alone more than USD 100 billion per year. Eurasian watermilfoil, an example of an invasive aquatic plant species, has reduced the value of Vermont lakeside real estate by up to 16% and Wisconsin lakeside properties by 13%. Further examples are invasive mussels, which colonize and corrode water pipelines and block the flow of water, so that the operating costs for the utility companies are rising; cheatgrass, which fuels forest fires, intensifies the technical difficulty of firefighting and therefore the costs and damage to equipment and property; and the Asian citrus psyllid attacks orange groves, with corresponding damage.
[0069] 5. Biodiversity is of decisive importance for pharmaceutical development, as about half of all approved modern medicinal products in the last 30 years were developed from wild species. Critical recent examples: scientists developed the malaria drug artemisinin from sweet wormwood, while the Madagascan Evergreen and the Pacific yew have provided treatments against cancer.
[0070] 6. Insects are the globally most important pollinators and have declined in recent decades by 20%-40% (estimates vary depending on the source and method of meta-analysis). 75% of critical foodstuff plants depend on animal pollination, including fruit, vegetables, nuts and seeds and important cash crops such as coffee and cocoa. The global annual market value of animal-pollinated crops is estimated at 235-577 billion USD (OECD 2019).
[0071] (b) Relevance and Correlation of Ecosystem Services (BES) and Biodiversity, and Dangers for Ecosystem Services
[0072] Ecosystem services (BES) 61 are essential for the functioning of industry, societies and national economies.
[0073] Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) are all the positive and negative contributions of living nature (i.e. the diversity of organisms, ecosystems and the associated ecological and evolutionary processes) to the quality of life of humans. The useful contributions of Nature include things such as food provision, water purification, flood protection and artistic inspiration, whereas the harmful contributions include the transmission of diseases and overexploitation, which are harmful to humans or their assets. Many NCP may be perceived as useful or harmful depending on the cultural, temporal or spatial context. For example, 18 NCP can be identified, grouped by nature of the contribution that they make to the quality of life of humans: regulating, material and non-material NCP (see
[0074] For the ecosystem services it is important which species occur and to what extent, and how many species there are. In contrast to other goods, many ecosystem services are not measured, assessed or marketed at readily observable prices. The manner in which ecosystems are used often takes the supply and renewal of ecosystems for granted. The worsening of ecosystem services could be slowed considerably or even reversed if the role of biodiversity and its full contribution to the economic and technical output formed an integrated component of the decisions of government agencies, companies and other interest groups. Loss of species can destabilize ecosystems and may, because of how species and ecosystems are interlinked, suddenly interrupt the flow of benefits from Nature to humans.
[0075] The redundancy of species is a measurable quantity for the resilience of ecosystems in a period of continuous decline, as certain species can replace the basic functions of other critically endangered species. However, this relation will not hold for ever, as there is the potential danger that ecosystem services no longer function correctly, or abrupt environmental changes occur. The present (developing) scientific consensus is that the relations between biodiversity and ecosystem functions are positively concave (with a functionality of the ecosystem services of up to 100% on the x-axis and increasing species diversity on the y-axis), wherein a decreasing marginal contribution of the next-most important species plays a role. However, the individual relations between biodiversity, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services, which affect biodiversity and the contribution to economic value, are very varied. These relations depend on compromises between different ecosystem services and between expected economic returns and risks. They also depend on various utility functions, which depend on sociodemographic classifications of individuals and their preferences, and on environmental and economic traditions and trajectories, which are different from country to country. These links show why the biosphere-related sustainable development goals for life on the land and life underwater—which represent biodiversity and ecosystems—are the basis for all other sustainable development goals (SDGs), as shown in
[0076] Reasons for the decline of biodiversity and the worsening of ecosystem functions are varied, i.e. the interaction of many factors leads typically to the decline of biodiversity and damage to ecosystems. The most important direct driving forces are (i) changes of habitat and land use, including the fragmentation of forests and expansion of infrastructure and other built-up areas; (ii) invasive species, which become established and spread outside of their normal geographic distribution; (iii) overexploitation of natural resources; (iv) pollution—in particular through excessive use of fertilizer, which leads to a high nutrient content of soils and water; and (v) climate change.
[0077] The international Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) assesses the conservation status of species regularly. At present more than 31 000 or 27% of the species assessed by the IUCN are threatened with extinction. IPBES estimates that of the 8.1 million animal and plant species on Earth—with most of these species still unknown to mankind—about 1 million are threatened with extinction. In contrast to the monitoring of biodiversity, at least with regard to threatened species or species diversity, the global monitoring of ecosystem services has not so far been as comprehensive and regular. IPBES recently assessed global trends of the extent to which ecosystem services will be able to maintain Nature's contributions for humans (see
[0078] Indirect driving forces (drivers), such as the human population (especially population density), economic activity, technology and socio-political and cultural factors also affect biodiversity. The biodiversity and ecosystems in certain regions have also been impaired considerably by climate changes. With the intensification of climate change, it is expected that the harmful effects on the ecosystem services in most regions of the world will outweigh the potential advantages (such as longer growth periods) (IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). In fact it can be assumed that climate change will intensify the risks of species extinction, from floods, drought, population decline and disease outbreaks. Many of the activities that have negative effects on biodiversity are becoming more and more harmful and in addition occur at the same time. Their effects will become more severe in future due to climate change (IPCC). Studies suggest that climate extremes will lead to abrupt changes in some ecosystem dimensions, long before political measures for management of the slowly developing average conditions have been implemented. At the same time, science has not yet fully understood these potential abrupt changes of ecosystems.
[0079] Since the end of the 1990s, economists have better measured and understood the essential contributions of Nature to functioning industries, national economies and societies. Studies estimate that the global ecosystem services produce an annual benefit in the order of 125-140 trillion US dollars. Concrete examples range from the global annual value of the nutrient cycle of seaweed at the level of 1.9 trillion USD to a global annual market value of 235-577 billion USD for animal-pollinated cash crops or an initial sale value of fishery and aquaculture of 362 billion USD annually, and other country-specific examples.
[0080] Biodiversity and ecosystem services are relevant to insurance and reinsurance technology. The key regions of importance are listed in
[0081] (c) The Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BES) Measurement Index
[0082] The state of the BES can be provided with the measurement index e.g. from a globally comparative assessment of a 1 km.sup.2 resolution for aggregates at the country level. Based on the IPBES classification, a set of ten BES indicators and measuring parameters was selected, which concentrate on terrestrial ecosystems. The selection is based on the relevance of the BES for the insurance and reinsurance industry and the various branches and on data availability. Although the important biodiversity in aquatic and marine ecosystems and its contribution to several BES is recognized, the main focus of the BES index is the terrestrial ecosystems—these represent the majority of the risk sites, and a wide range of methods of measurement and corresponding data sources is available for their quantification. However, the BES index can easily be expanded technically to include aquatic and marine ecosystems, provided the data quality will have improved and the various requirements are met. In order to quantify the provision of ecosystem services (BES) by measurement, an indicator is selected for each service, which is derived from one or more measuring parameters and/or aerial and/or satellite measurement data, wherein these are mapped on a global scale, e.g. based on geographic cellular units. The result is a globally comparative indicator measurement system for the state of the ten BES that are the most important for the insurance and reinsurance industry (
[0083] According to the invention, the values of the BES index are classified worldwide in 7 classes according to the 15th percentile classification; the classes range from “very high” to “very low” and in view of the similar values the medium classes are defined as “moderate”. Sites with high values of the BES index (“Very high” BES—upper 15th percentile globally) are assigned to an intact ecosystem with significant value for biodiversity and high capacity for provision of ES (ecosystem services); sites with low values of the BES (“Very low” class—lower 15th percentile globally) are regarded as sensitive ecosystems, which have suffered under the effects of degradation. The system is set up to extend data to threatened species.
[0084] Most of the results can be made available for example as maps in an automated online information and mapping system for natural hazards. A tool such as HMI (human machine interface) to the BES index makes it possible for example to enlarge individual regions in a zoom function and provide tailor-made maps. Users can import their own coordinates and data into the tool, in order to generate tailor-made data sets, as illustrated e.g. in
[0085] In a further step, the state of the ten ecosystem services is assessed and aggregated at country level.
[0086] Industry and the economic sectors correlate directly with the local biodiversity and ecosystem services, or with the measured values of the BES index. Thus, it can be seen in the global picture how the ten ecosystem services contained in the example BES index contribute to the industrial and economic activity, namely: (i) Directly: through physical Input for production processes (water and timber), (ii) Indirectly: through conditions that are essential for production processes (habitat intactness, pollination, soil fertility, water quality, air quality and local climate), and (iii) Protectively (protecting/defensive): protection of production processes against disturbances through extreme events (erosion protection and coastal protection).
[0087] Loss of biodiversity represents a threat for all industrial and economic sectors, as they are dependent directly or indirectly for their activity on the provision of ecosystem services. An analysis highlights the technology and economic sectors that are more heavily dependent on Nature, in particular the dependencies that are more material, and the exposure of each country to the risks and implications of BES decline. In order to assess to what extent technology and economic sectors correlate with the BES or to calibrate the BES index, it is additionally possible to use tools such as the online tool “Exploring Natural Capital Opportunities, Risks and Exposure (ENCORE)” developed by the Natural Capital Finance Alliance and the UNEP-WCMC (United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, also World Conservation Monitoring Centre). The materiality assessments are converted and the dependency of the production processes on various ecosystem services is assessed on a scale of 1-5, where 1 stands for a very low materiality (limited loss of functionality and financial effects) and 5 stands for a very high materiality (heavy loss of functionality and financial effects). In order to adjust the BES index with such an analysis, i.e. use for its calibration, for example the measurements of the ecosystem services of ENCORE were linked with the BES system on the basis of their definitions and only the ecosystem services contained in the example BES index were triggered or taken into account. In addition, the dependencies of the individual ecosystem services were aggregated to one value, in order to determine to what extent a respective technology or economic sector (NACE Level 1 (NACE Rev2 industry classification (Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community))) is dependent on the BES. The correlation or the dependency that belongs in the uppermost tercile (values >3.15) is classified as “high” and that in the lowest tercile as “low” (values <2.3).
[0088] By taking into account the global sectoral dependency on biodiversity and ecosystem services BES and taking into account the different value contributions of these sectors, e.g. to the global GDP, the measurement results of the BES index make possible a new view on technology development and world economy, wherein typically a higher correlation or dependency leads to a higher exposure to danger, i.e. higher risks or higher measured rates of effects. This view used here may for example be designated as “endangered value contribution based on the dependency of the economic activity on BES with the highest effects on GDP”. It is found by multiplying the percentage share of a technology or economic sector in the global GDP contribution (according to the sector classification of NACE Rev. 2) with the dependency ranking of the BES of ENCORE for this sector (scale 1-5,
[0089] The country-specific view produces a boomerang-like envelope. By means of the BES index, it is possible to assess the correlations of the various national economies with the BES and endangerment of them by risks that arise from the biodiversity loss or ecosystem degradation. For this purpose, for example the measurement indicator “value-added output in % of GDP” of Oxford Economics can be used as a weighting, wherein the weighted total of the dependency of the BES from all sectors of a country is formed. A list of the ten countries most and least dependent on GDP is given in
[0090] Some examples are given below, for how the results in
[0094] Also in potential risk transfer cases, automation of risk transfer can be supported by the BES index 302/3021 . . . 3031, for example: [0095] (i) Recognition and measurement in the case of overlaps of known measurable individual risks with the BES (biodiversity and ecosystem services): Such an overlap can provide first-hand findings if a unit that is exposed to hazards, e.g. as potential or actual insured party, is active in damaged or unaffected ecosystems or if and to what extent an industrial activity at a particular location is dependent on the BES. A site-specific view can also show where the BES is already limited, so that future activities could be susceptible to operating interruptions. In addition, it can demonstrate where property values could be protected by BES against natural hazards. [0096] (ii) Provision of risk-relevant measured data: The various Indices identify hot spots (either where they are fragile/threatened or intact). It is possible to superimpose them with protected areas, if relevant to measurement or evidence. [0097] (iii) Development of nature-based, automated monitoring and risk transfer systems: The values of the measuring parameter for acquisition of the BES may form the basis for nature-based, automated monitoring and risk transfer systems. Examples of this are nature-based clean water in areas with water scarcity, improvement of fisheries through restoration of mangrove forests or return of degraded areas to agricultural areas through restoration of soils. In addition, screening and prioritization of sites where ecosystem services reduce natural hazards. [0098] (iv) To make nature-based, automated, monetary recognition and disclosures possible: Metrological quantification of BES dependencies and BES effects can provide technical support for an impending risk transfer activity.
[0099] (d) Further Impacts of the Measuring System According to the Invention and of the Associated Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BES) Measurement Index
[0100] The United Nations (UN) recognized the importance of biodiversity and declared by 2020 five strategic goals and twenty targets (these are called Aichi biodiversity targets), to stop biodiversity loss. Although many of these goals and targets were not achieved, the international community has begun to negotiate a new biodiversity framework.
[0101] Many risk transfer activities (automated or not automated) already contribute to attainment of the SDGs, although the activities and their contribution have only rarely (if at all) been described in this way—this also applies to the Aichi targets. The SDGs and the Aichi targets are independent of the industrial sector, and as such the technical targets, in particular measuring technology and monitoring technology, but also the other targets, partial targets and indicators are not risk transfer-specific. Furthermore, the idea of developing further risk transfer structures, to address the SDGs, has been taken into consideration by some, but the demand has not yet been met by the industry. The SDGs try to cover the diversity of sustainability—ecological, social, industrial-technical and economic, many aspects of which contribute to BES or are dependent on these. The Aichi targets try to cover the complexity of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The present invention makes it possible to demonstrate links between 12 SDGs and the ten ecosystem services contained in the BES index. It is already clear from this number how important the BES and the BES index are for reaching the UN targets by 2030. A key technical question is: How does risk transfer technology integrate the attainment of the SDGs in business strategy and structure? This begins with the mapping and prioritization of the (BES-linked) SDGs. First, the risk transfer industry must be aware of how its operations support or do not support a particular SDG: Does it support the attainment of the SDGs? Is it even detrimental? Is there a measurable conflict of aims, e.g. in supporting climate protection measures, but damaging life on land? Therefore a process is required for establishing an action plan and of benchmarks with the 2030 target date. Sensitization is an important step, and the BES index according to the invention, measurement thereof and large-area monitoring, may in this respect be an invaluable technical tool and form the basis for deciding which activities at which locations should be continued, altered or discontinued. In fact, various studies show that it a decisive step towards successful inclusion in policies and planning, to make ecosystem services technically comprehensible and visible (cf. Wood S. et al., 2018. Distilling the role of ecosystem services in the Sustainable Development Goals. Ecosystem Services 29 (2018) 70-82).
[0102] BES-linked SDGs, which are currently classified by the insurance and reinsurance industry as priorities: no hunger, health and wellbeing, clean water and sanitation, sustainable towns and communities and climate protection. These are all SDGs that are heavily dependent on BES and are strongly correlated with these. At present, however, the insurance and reinsurance industry in general has no precedence for life on land or life under water.
[0103] The problem of SDGs 14 and 15: Preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services form the basis of SDGs 14 “Life underwater” and 15 “Life on the land”, and their contribution to the ecosystem services and to human wellbeing underpins the attainment of all other goals. As demonstrated in studies, the effectiveness of the currently prescribed SDG framework for the protection of biodiversity is uncertain. For various reasons, social and economic, especially industrial questions are preferred to environmental questions. The two directly interrelated SDGs (life under water, life on the land) often receive the least attention and the least prioritization, for which the BES index according to the invention can serve as a technical aid, especially as better measured data and technically based analyses are the most important reasons identified for this deficit. In view of the fact that the two biosphere targets of life on the land and life under water underpin all other SDGs, it can clearly be established based on the results of the BES index that they should be expressly taken into consideration in prioritization of the SDGs on which the insurance and reinsurance technology will concentrate. The SDGs and the Aichi strategic plan support and strengthen each other, and therefore the realization of one contributes to the attainment of the other. For a better understanding of how BES research could contribute to both objectives, the degree of support of the various SDGs by the ecosystem services contained in the BES index according to the invention can be measured, monitored and assessed. Assessment was based in particular on mapping of the contribution of the BES to the attainment of the targets for 12 SDGs by means of the BES index and the links between SDGs and the Aichi biodiversity targets. The targets of the SDGs can thus be aggregated technically, and the results allow the degree of support of each of the ecosystem services for the 12 SDGs to be measured, wherein the maximum represents a strong support level for all targets assessed in these SDGs (
[0104] The technical limitations are clear, which are intrinsic to the mapping of the BES used here, and future technical Innovations may support improvements to the automated mapping and monitoring by means of the BES index presented here. In order to see how the state of the ecosystem services develops over time, it is necessary to monitor the structure of the BES index periodically, e.g. at least every three to five years. As a technical precondition, the data used must be measured again periodically. In a careful interpretation of the values of the BES index, it must be taken into account that there is no direct ecological significance of the measurement index, but that it is a technical measurement index. Thus, for example, it is not predicted whether the locations identified as “fragile” (low-capacity) or “very fragile” (very low-capacity) will collapse in the near future. However, this indicates where to be more careful in respect of socio-economic activities—because these locations are endangered. From the country perspective, priorities are set during identification, where further local assessments must be carried out. At this point it should again be pointed out that the BES index represents a technical tool for automated monitoring and signalling of further systems, in particular expert and alarm systems to support decision-making and automated pattern recognition, because for example risk transfer technology is looking right now for said identifications and technical measurement indicators. Recognition of these technical limitations should not, however, hamper reducing the dependency and effects, especially not when the state of the BES is fragile or very fragile. Rather, it should be shown that an actor-whether an industry, an enterprise or a government—can already reduce dependencies measurably, for example by ascertaining the technical structure of its production facilities and/or of the suppliers and observing and automatically monitoring the state of the BES at a particular location.
[0105] (e) Summary of the Measuring and Monitoring System According to the Invention and the Corresponding Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (BES) Measurement Index
[0106] In the starting situation for the present invention, some measuring parameters and indicators of the Dutch National Bank (DNB) were observed: 510 billion euro or 36% of all investments of Dutch financial institutions are at risk through the decline of the ecosystem services in the Netherlands.
[0107] These two numbers show the current economic situation. The invention provides a technical measurement index, which in particular indicates by measurement where BES dependency is to be found around the world. Using this measuring instrument according to the invention, we can see which BES are available at a particular location, and what their status is. These data can be used for effective decision-making, in particular by means of automated monitoring, alarm and expert systems, regarding the question of how the performance of the BES can be obtained or improved. The invention creates a possibility for monitoring, measurement and detection of (i) the medium to long-term action perspective for the BES at a particular location; (ii) the dependency and correlation of industrial and economic activity on the BES at a particular geographic site. The measurement results can for example support industry in its efforts to reduce its dependency on the BES and monitor it automatically. The same applies for example to the selection of new sites. Both scenarios will benefit the reliability and loading capacity of the corresponding industrial sector. Furthermore, it may prompt industry to take into consideration and apply slimmer and safer methods, if it involves the usage of the various BES.
[0108] The finance industry and finance-related technology can also use the BES index similarly for automated monitoring, alerting, automated signalling of third-party systems and corresponding expert systems, in particular based on geographically distributed automated pattern recognition. The price of financing or risk transfer should take into account the measured level of fragility or intactness of the BES. Heavily BES-dependent activities in fragile areas possibly do not have a sustainable future, and the use of the BES index may thus support corresponding expert systems in distributing the resources correspondingly. The price that the finance industry demands for the provision of capital—whether via investments or risk transfers—must reflect the predicted, measured risk associated with the BES. The technical tool and technical means presented here make it possible to make these decisions and monitor them automatically in future, to make technical installations and industry reliable and resistant to a possible external shock of exhaustion of the BES.
[0109] For public facilities and economic decisions, the BES index and the measuring and monitoring technology according to the invention can provide technical support e.g. in the prioritization of conservation objectives or the change of zone and development planning, by integrating and measuring the state of the ecosystem services in defined areas. For example, the measurement index enables public facilities to detect potential ecological shortages in densely populated urban or suburban areas and identify and classify them automatically, e.g. by means of pattern recognition based on the measured parameters and indices. Furthermore, the BES index can indicate the need for resource efficiency, in the case of development of new parts of towns within particular settlement areas or the planning of new towns. The BES index can provide technical support for the implementation of nature conservation or environmental policies, wherein the main focus is on the relevant AICHI or UN Post-2020 framework goals for biodiversity or for ecosystem functions. The BES and the BES index can form the basis for nature-based risk transfer solutions and assessment thereof, which should be promoted together with the public sector and interest groups. Examples of this are nature-based clean water in water-stressed areas, the restocking of fisheries through the restoration of mangrove forests, the return of degraded areas to agricultural use areas through the restoration of soils or the verification and prioritization of sites where ecosystem services reduce natural hazards.
[0110] The stages of dependency, i.e. correlations, of the BES with the aid of the BES index can warn or generally inform a business leader or a public facility about the current state of the ecosystem services. Looking into the future, they can also measure whether development is going in the right direction. That means that if the financial industry takes the BES criteria as described as the basis for its decision-making as technical measuring unit, the potential negative technical or economic effects on investments, as presented by the DNB, ought to decrease over time. That should be the goal, in order to realize a main objective of risk transfer, in particular to promote corporate resilience. This is proposed here as specific technology, in that the opportunities for automated risk transfer are identified, in order to strengthen the capacity of industry, economy and companies to regain their equilibrium after large setbacks and stimulate growth again. The latter is among other things one of the aims of the present invention, namely (i) by providing technical means and measuring techniques for risk transfer structures, which help, in disasters, to overcome damage and resume or maintain operation; and (ii) by providing the new opportunities for a technology-based analysis and monitoring, to avoid disasters that put humans and industry in danger. The BES index presented here and the corresponding measuring system and method according to the invention relates to the making of reference measurement parameters technically tangible and allows new and innovative risk expertise to be generated. In particular it allows new technical solutions to be developed, which support biodiversity and ecosystem services—and promote sustainable growth.
LIST OF REFERENCE NUMERALS
[0111] 1 Measuring and monitoring system [0112] 11 Measuring sensors and measuring devices [0113] 111 Earth Observation (EO) sensors/satellites [0114] 1111 Atmospheric measurements [0115] 1112 Maritime measurements [0116] 1113 Land-based measurements [0117] 1114 Orbit of the Earth Observation (EO) satellite [0118] 112 In-situ and remote sensing sensors [0119] 1121 Atmospheric measurements [0120] 1122 Maritime measurements [0121] 1123 Land-based measurements [0122] 113 Measured data [0123] 1131 Atmospheric measuring parameters [0124] 1132 Maritime measuring parameters [0125] 1133 Land-based measuring parameters [0126] 114 Technical sensor and measuring device parameters [0127] 1141 Weight [0128] 1142 Power [0129] 1143 Spatial resolution [0130] 1144 Swath [0131] 115 Spatial measurement scale range [0132] 2 Storage unit [0133] 20 Production processes and production outputs 1 . . . p [0134] 221 Atmospheric dependency [0135] 222 Maritime dependency [0136] 223 Country-based dependency [0137] 224 Climate change-based dependency [0138] 225 Hazard planning and disaster-related dependency [0139] 216 Safety-related dependency [0140] 21 Correlation measuring indices 1 . . . k for a production process or [0141] Production output i for each of the BES indicators (materiality index) [0142] 211 Correlation factor relating to habitat intactness [0143] 212 Correlation factor relating to pollination [0144] 213 Correlation factor relating to air quality [0145] 214 Correlation factor relating to local climate [0146] 215 Correlation factor relating to water security [0147] 216 Correlation factor relating to water quality [0148] 217 Correlation factor relating to soil fertility [0149] 218 Correlation factor relating to erosion control [0150] 219 Correlation factor relating to coastal protection [0151] 220 Correlation factor relating to food provision [0152] 221 Correlation factor relating to timber provision [0153] 3 Digital platform with central simulation and prediction system [0154] 30 Core Engine [0155] 301 Aggregation module [0156] 3011 Parameterized BES indicators [0157] 302 BES indices [0158] 3021 BES index for habitat intactness [0159] 3022 BES index for pollination [0160] 3023 BES index for air quality [0161] 3024 BES index for local climate [0162] 3025 BES index for water security [0163] 3026 BES index for water quality [0164] 3027 BES index for soil fertility [0165] 3028 BES index for erosion control [0166] 3029 BES index for coastal protection [0167] 3030 BES index for food provision [0168] 3031 BES index for timber provision [0169] 303 Cumulative BES index [0170] 304 Correlation module [0171] 31 First risk-transfer system (primary insurance system) [0172] 311 First electronically automated resource-pooling system [0173] 3111 First risk transfer parameters [0174] 312 First payment transfer modules [0175] 3121 First payment parameters [0176] 32 Second risk-transfer system (reinsurance system) [0177] 321 First electronically automated resource-pooling system [0178] 3211 Second risk transfer parameters [0179] 322 Second payment transfer modules [0180] 3221 Second payment parameters [0181] 33 Persistent storage [0182] 34 Data transmission interface [0183] 4 Data transfer network [0184] 5 Monitored/measured geographic region [0185] 51 Monitored/measured geographic grid [0186] 52 Monitored/measured geographic cell/grid cell [0187] 6 Ecosystem [0188] 61 Ecosystem services (BES) [0189] 611 Habitat intactness [0190] 612 Pollination [0191] 613 Air quality [0192] 614 Local climate [0193] 615 Water security [0194] 616 Water quality [0195] 617 Soil fertility [0196] 618 Erosion control [0197] 619 Coastal protection [0198] 620 Food provision [0199] 621 Timber provision