Method and device for predicting call load of controller
12431031 ยท 2025-09-30
Assignee
Inventors
- Weijun PAN (Guanghan, CN)
- Boyuan Han (Guanghan, CN)
- Yidi Wang (Guanghan, CN)
- Qinghai Zuo (Guanghan, CN)
- Xuan WANG (Guanghan, CN)
- Tian Luan (Guanghan, CN)
- Rundong Wang (Guanghan, CN)
Cpc classification
G08G5/26
PHYSICS
G08G5/20
PHYSICS
International classification
G08G5/20
PHYSICS
Abstract
According to a method for predicting a call load of a controller, a flight trajectory of an aircraft is calculated by analyzing route information of an area to be predicted, a command intention of the controller and a flight intention of a pilot, and then a more accurate flight trajectory of the aircraft is predicted through the calculated flight trajectory, so that a future call node and content are acquired. The predicted call content is combined with the current specific control scene to predict call time required by the call content. Finally, the call load is calculated by the required call content and time and the call node, finally the purpose of predicting the call load of the controller in a time period of the future is achieved, and more reliable support is provided for timing requirements in an air traffic control process.
Claims
1. A method for predicting a call load of a controller, comprising the following steps: S1: acquiring air traffic control data of an area to be predicted; wherein the air traffic control data comprises real-time data, route data and historical data; the real-time data comprises ground-air call data, airspace restriction information, meteorological information and/or aircraft state information; the route data comprises route information and/or flight procedure information; the historical data comprises historical flight trajectory information, command schemes under different flight events and corresponding flight paths thereof; and the flight events comprise controller information, meteorological information, airspace restriction information, conflict types, time from a conflict, aircraft types and/or flow; S2: analyzing flight path prediction information of each aircraft in the area to be predicted according to the air traffic control data; wherein the flight path prediction information comprises a flight path of each aircraft and time of arrival at each point in the flight path; wherein the step S2 comprises: acquiring a command intention of the controller and a flight intention of a pilot corresponding to each aircraft through the ground-air call data; acquiring the route information and/or the flight procedure information, and acquiring an initial flight path of each aircraft according to the command intention of the controller and the flight intention of the pilot corresponding to each aircraft; according to the initial flight path of each aircraft and the route data, calculating initial time point information of each aircraft arriving at each point in a corresponding initial flight path; wherein a calculation formula of the initial time point information comprises: wherein time required for an aircraft to fly in a straight line:
h.sub.enc,t=LSTM(X.sub.plan,t,X.sub.atc,t,X.sub.pilot,t,X.sub.history,t,h.sub.enc,t-1) wherein an operation expression of the at least one decoder is:
h.sub.enc,t=LSTM(Y.sub.prev,t-1,h.sub.dec,t-1)
Y.sub.prev,t=Dense(h.sub.enc,t,h.sub.dec,t) where h.sub.enc,t and h.sub.dec,t represent hidden states of the encoder and decoder at a time step t respectively, and X.sub.plan,t represents a flight plan information sequence at the time step t, and X.sub.plan,t is acquired from the route data; X.sub.atc,t represents a controller command information sequence at the time step t, and X.sub.atc,t is acquired from the air traffic control data; X.sub.pilot,t represents a pilot input information sequence at the time step t, and X.sub.pilot,t is acquired from the air traffic control data; X.sub.history,t represents a historical data sequence at the time step t; h.sub.enc,t-1 represents a hidden state of the encoder at a time step t1; Y.sub.prev,t-1 represents a predicted flight path at the time step t1; h.sub.dec,t-1 represents a hidden state of the decoder at the time step t1; Y.sub.prev,t represents a predicted flight path at the time step t; LSTM( ) represents LSTM unit processing, and Dense( ) represents full connection processing; wherein the flight path prediction model adopts a mean square error as a loss function, and an expression thereof is:
Optimization: .sub.Loss where Loss represents the loss function, Y.sub.true,t represents an actual flight path at the time step t, N represents a number of samples, .sub. represents a gradient symbol, and represents derivative of , represents a model parameter, and represents a learning rate; and S33: outputting the command scheme corresponding to each aircraft in the area to be predicted; S4: calculating call time of the controller on each aircraft according to the command scheme, comprising: S41: acquiring call content of each command scheme, and setting a call time initial value of each command scheme as general call time; wherein the general call time is average call time of each controller using each instruction in the historical data; S42: matching with the historical data according to the corresponding real-time data and the call content to acquire the command scheme with the highest similarity and corresponding historical call time; S43: according to the historical call time, revising the call time of each command scheme of the aircraft; wherein the revising is performed through a neural network model, and the neural network model is LSTM; a mean square error is selected as a loss function, and an adaptive moment estimation (Adam) optimizer is used for parameter optimization; and an input sequence is denoted as X.sub.f={x.sub.1, x.sub.2, . . . , x.sub.n}, where each of x.sub.1, x.sub.2, . . . , x.sub.n is a feature vector containing information such as an aircraft state, controller instructions and traffic conditions; wherein a calculation process of a hidden state and a memory state of the LSTM is as follows:
i.sub.t=(W.sub.x1x.sub.t+W.sub.hih.sub.t-1+W.sub.cic.sub.t-1+b.sub.i)
f.sub.t=(W.sub.xfx.sub.t+W.sub.hfh.sub.t-1+W.sub.cfc.sub.t-1+b.sub.f)
c.sub.t=f.sub.tc.sub.t-1+i.sub.ttanh(W.sub.xcx.sub.t+W.sub.hch.sub.t-1+b.sub.c)
o.sub.t=(W.sub.xox.sub.t+W.sub.hoh.sub.t-1+W.sub.coc.sub.t-1+b.sub.o)
h.sub.t=o.sub.ttanh (c.sub.t) where i.sub.t, f.sub.t, o.sub.f represent outputs of an input gate, a forgetting gate and an output gate, represents a sigmoid function, represents multiplication at an element level, W represents a weight matrix, b represents a paranoid vector, h.sub.t represents the hidden state of the LSTM, and represents an internal representation of the neural network model for an input at the time step t, c.sub.t represents a memory state of the LSTM at the time step t, x.sub.t represents a feature vector at the time step t in the input sequence, h.sub.t-1 represents a hidden state of the LSTM at the time step t1, and c.sub.t-1 represents a memory state of the LSTM at the time step t1; W.sub.x1 represents an input weight matrix of the input gate that maps the x.sub.t to the i.sub.t, W.sub.hi represents a hidden state weight matrix of the input gate that maps the h.sub.t-1 to the i.sub.t, and W.sub.ci represents a memory state weight matrix of the input gate that maps the c.sub.t-1 to the i.sub.t; W.sub.xf represents an input weight matrix of the forgetting gate that maps the x.sub.t to the f.sub.4, W.sub.hf represents a hidden state weight matrix of the forgetting gate that maps the h.sub.t-1 to the f.sub.t, and W.sub.cf represents a memory state weight matrix of the forgetting gate that maps the c.sub.t-1 to the f.sub.t; W.sub.xo represents an input weight matrix of the output gate that maps the x.sub.t to the o.sub.t, W.sub.ho represents a hidden state weight matrix of the output gate that maps the h.sub.t-1 to the o.sub.t, and W.sub.co represents a memory state weight matrix of the forgetting gate that maps the c.sub.t-1 to the o.sub.t; W.sub.xc represents an input weight matrix for updating the memory state that maps the x.sub.t to the c.sub.t, and W.sub.hc represents a hidden state weight matrix for updating the memory state that maps the h.sub.t-1 to the c.sub.t; and b.sub.i represents a bias value of the input gate, b.sub.f represents a bias value of the forgetting gate, b.sub.c represents a bias value for updating the memory state, and b.sub.o represents a bias value of the output gate; wherein a processing expression for a full connection layer is as follows:
.sub.t=FC(h.sub.t) where FC( ) represents the full connection layer and .sub.t represents a predicted call time; wherein an expression of the loss function is as follows:
2. A device for predicting the call load of the controller, comprising at least one processor and a memory communicatively connected with the at least one processor; wherein the memory stores instructions executable by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to execute the method according to claim 1.
Description
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS
(1)
(2)
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF EMBODIMENTS
(3) The following provides a further detailed description of the disclosure in conjunction with specific examples and embodiments. However, it should not be understood that the scope of the above subject matter of the disclosure is limited to the following embodiments, and any technology realized based on the content of the disclosure falls within the scope of the disclosure.
Embodiment 1
(4) As shown in
Embodiment 2
(5) This embodiment is a concrete implementation of the method for predicting the call load of the controller according to embodiment 1, which includes the following steps. S1: the air traffic control data of the area to be predicted is acquired.
(6) The air traffic control data includes real-time data, route data and historical data.
(7) Specifically, the real-time data includes ground-air call data, airspace restriction information, meteorological information and/or aircraft state information.
(8) Specifically, the route data includes route information and/or flight procedure information.
(9) Specifically, the historical data includes historical flight trajectory information, command schemes under different flight events and corresponding flight paths thereof; and the flight events include controller information, meteorological information, airspace restriction information, conflict type, time from the conflict, aircraft type and/or flow. S2: the flight path prediction information of each aircraft in the area to be predicted is analyzed according to the air traffic control data; and the flight path prediction information includes the flight path of the corresponding aircraft and the time of arrival at each point in the flight path.
(10) Firstly, voice signals are acquired according to the ground-air call data, then the voice signals are converted into text, and then a command intention of the controller and a flight intention of a pilot are understood by a natural language processing technology; an initial flight path is calculated in combination with fixed information such as flight procedures and air routes (that is, an original trajectory is generated by the fixed information such as the flight procedures and air routes, and then adjusted according to the command intention of the controller and the flight intention of the pilot to acquire the initial flight path), then the information such as the path and a speed gradient of the aircraft are comprehensively calculated to acquire the time of arrival at each point of each flight path, the path and time information of all aircrafts are integrated, and a conflict is judged according to a safe interval in the area. Finally, a new path prediction solution is acquired in combination with an adjustment mode of the conflict in the historical data and output to the next step.
(11) The ground-air call data in the real-time data are converted into text information.
(12) According to the text information, the command intention of the controller and the flight intention of the pilot corresponding to each aircraft are acquired.
(13) The route information and/or flight procedure information is acquired, and the initial flight path of each aircraft is acquired according to the command intention of the controller and the flight intention of the pilot corresponding to each aircraft.
(14) According to the initial flight path of each aircraft and the route data, initial time point information of each aircraft arriving at each point in the corresponding initial flight path is calculated.
(15) That is, the time for the aircraft to arrive at each point is directly calculated according to the information such as position, altitude, speed, slope, descending rate and ascending rate of the aircraft. Specifically, a calculation formula of the initial time point information is as follows.
(16) Time required for an aircraft to fly in a straight line:
(17)
where T.sub.l represents time required for straight flight, D.sub.f represents a flight distance, V.sub.GS represents a ground speed of the aircraft, a represents an included angle between the aircraft and ground, and W represents an external wind speed.
(18) Time required for the aircraft to turn:
(19)
where T.sub.t represents time required for turning, .sub.t represents a turning angle, R represents a turning radius, V represents a speed of the aircraft, W represents the external wind speed, and D.sub.p represents a distance of the aircraft deviated from a predetermined trajectory by wind.
(20) According to initial flight paths and initial time point information of all aircrafts in the area to be predicted, whether each aircraft has a conflict in the safe interval of the area to be predicted is judged.
(21) In response to an aircraft with the conflict, the command scheme corresponding to a flight event with the highest similarity in the historical data is matched, the initial flight path and initial time point information of the aircraft are updated, and the flight path prediction information of the aircraft with the conflict is output.
(22) In response to an aircraft without the conflict, the flight path prediction information of the aircraft without the conflict is output.
(23) The flight path prediction information of the aircraft in the area to be predicted is output.
(24) In this step, auxiliary correction is performed through the command intention of the controller and the flight intention of the pilot in combination with the historical data, and an accurate flight path in the future is predicted. An accurate flight path is different from a general flight path in that the general flight path only includes the height and time of arriving at each point, and the accurate flight path needs to acquire the turning or height adjustment point of the aircraft in this flight segment. This involves flight dynamic analysis to predict the flight trajectory of the aircraft more accurately, and at the same time, path planning is optimized by using the historical data. S3: the command scheme corresponding to each aircraft in the area to be predicted is acquired according to the flight path prediction information of each aircraft and the historical data.
(25) That is, through the acquired flight path prediction information, in combination with the flight trajectory information of similar situations in the historical data, the accurate flight path of the aircraft is predicted through deep learning, and then the most commonly used command scheme is selected according to different controllers and flight dynamics, thereby predicting the specific time and call content of the ground-air call between the controller and the pilot. S31: the historical flight trajectory information with the highest similarity to the flight path information of each aircraft and the command scheme corresponding to each flight event are matched in the historical data.
(26) That is, the historical flight trajectory information with the highest degree of overlap with the flight path to be matched, as well as each flight event corresponding to the flight trajectory information and the command scheme thereof in the historical data are acquired. S32: the flight path information of each aircraft is updated according to the corresponding historical flight trajectory information to acquire accurate flight path information of each aircraft and the command scheme of a corresponding flight event.
(27) In this section, by the previously acquired flight path and call time point, in combination with historical call data, the call content is predicted and the call time is corrected. For example, when the traffic is small, the controller directs the aircraft to enter the site directly according to standard instruments and reports at a designated position. At this time, the call will not be performed at the flight turning point of the middle position of a reporting point and an initial point, that is, the call node time needs to be corrected as the time of arriving at the initial point and a final point. In this section, the most commonly used command scheme of different controllers is selected as a prediction result by comparing a historical database. S33: the command scheme corresponding to each aircraft in the area to be predicted is output.
(28) Specifically, optimizing and updating in the step S32 are performed through a pre-constructed flight path prediction model based on LSTM; and the flight path prediction model includes at least one encoder and at least one decoder.
(29) An operation expression of the encoder is:
h.sub.enc,t=LSTM(X.sub.plan,t,X.sub.atc,t,X.sub.pilot,t,X.sub.history,t,h.sub.enc,t-1)
(30) An operation expression of the decoder is:
h.sub.enc,t=LSTM(Y.sub.prev,t-1,h.sub.dec,t-1)
Y.sub.prev,t=Dense(h.sub.enc,t,h.sub.dec,t)
where h.sub.enc,t and h.sub.dec,t represent hidden states of the encoder and decoder at time step t respectively, and X.sub.plan,t represents a flight plan information sequence at the time step t, and X.sub.plan,t is acquired from the route data; X.sub.atc,t represents a controller command information sequence at the time step t, and X.sub.atc,t is acquired from the air traffic control data; X.sub.pilot,t represents a pilot input information sequence at the time step t, and X.sub.pilot,t is acquired from the air traffic control data; X.sub.history,t represents a historical data sequence at the time step t; Y.sub.prev,t represents a predicted flight path at time step t; LSTM( ) represents LSTM unit processing, and Dense( ) represents full connection processing.
(31) The flight path prediction model adopts a mean square error as a loss function, and an expression thereof is:
(32)
(33) The loss function also includes minimization through Adam optimizer, and an expression thereof is:
Optimization: .sub.Loss
where Y.sub.true,t represents an actual flight path at the time step t, N represents a number of samples, .sub. represents a gradient symbol, and represents derivative of , represents a model parameter, and f represents a learning rate.
(34) In this step, firstly, the required call time of different types of standard instructions is acquired according to standard call. When calculating the required call time of each instruction, the actual call time of the same type of instructions in different situations in the historical data is analyzed, and the habit of issuing the instructions by different controllers is considered, thereby correcting the call time of the standard instructions and acquire the required call time of each instruction in this control scenario.
(35) This method makes use of actual communication experience data, improves accurate estimation of the call time, and provides more reliable support for the timing requirements in an air traffic control process. S4: the call time of the controller on each aircraft is calculated according to the command scheme.
(36) In this section, mainly in combination with the current control scenario, the call content and the like, the acquired call content is matched with the historical database, general call time of this instruction is corrected by using deep learning, and finally the time required for each call is acquired. S41: the call content of each command scheme is acquired, and a call time initial value of each command scheme is set as the general call time; the general call time is average call time of each controller using each instruction in the historical data, or described as the average call time of different controllers using various instructions under different control scenarios. S42: the historical data is matched according to the corresponding real-time data and the call content to acquire the command scheme with the highest similarity and the corresponding historical call time. S43: the call time of each command scheme of the aircraft is revised according to the historical call time. This step may perform revising through the existing neural network model.
(37) Specifically, the existing neural network model adopts a time series model such as LSTM and recurrent neural network (RNN). For example, the LSTM model is adopted mainly due to the stronger modeling ability thereof for sequence data, especially suitable for processing long sequences and long-term dependencies. In the command scheme of the controller, the flight state of the aircraft and the instructions of the controller are often sequential. Therefore, the LSTM can effectively capture the time correlation and long-term dependence in these sequences.
(38) The present embodiment takes the long short-term memory (LSTM) network as an example to explain how to correct the call time through the existing neural network model. Specifically, the mean square error (MSE) is selected as the loss function, and the Adam optimizer is used to optimize the parameters. Assuming that the input sequence is X.sub.f={x.sub.1, x.sub.2, . . . , x.sub.n}, where each of x.sub.1, x.sub.2, . . . ,x.sub.n is a feature vector containing information such as an aircraft state, controller instructions and traffic conditions The calculation process of the hidden state and memory state of the LSTM is as follows:
i.sub.t=(W.sub.x1x.sub.t+W.sub.hih.sub.t-1+W.sub.cic.sub.t-1+b.sub.i)
f.sub.t=(W.sub.xfx.sub.t+W.sub.hfh.sub.t-1+W.sub.cfc.sub.t-1+b.sub.f)
c.sub.t=f.sub.tc.sub.t-1+i.sub.ttanh(W.sub.xcx.sub.t+W.sub.hch.sub.t-1+b.sub.c)
o.sub.t=(W.sub.xox.sub.t+W.sub.hoh.sub.t-1+W.sub.coc.sub.t-1+b.sub.o)
h.sub.t=o.sub.ttanh (c.sub.t) where i.sub.t, f.sub.t, o.sub.t represent outputs of an input gate, a forgetting gate and an output gate, is a sigmoid function, represents multiplication at an element level, W represents a weight matrix, b represents a paranoid vector, h.sub.t represents the hidden state of the LSTM, and represents the internal representation of the model for the input at a time step t, c.sub.t represents a memory state of the LSTM at the time step t, x.sub.t represents a feature vector at the time step t in the input sequence, h.sub.t represents a hidden state of the LSTM at a time step t1, and c.sub.t-1 represents a memory state of the LSTM at the time step t1; W.sub.xi represents an input weight matrix of the input gate that maps the x.sub.t to the i.sub.t, W.sub.hi represents a hidden state weight matrix of the input gate that maps the h.sub.t-1 to the it, and Wu, represents a memory state weight matrix of the input gate that maps the c.sub.t-1 to the i.sub.t; W.sub.xf represents an input weight matrix of the forgetting gate that maps the x.sub.t to the f.sub.t, W.sub.hf represents a hidden state weight matrix of the forgetting gate that maps the h.sub.t-1 to the f.sub.t; and W.sub.cf represents a memory state weight matrix of the forgetting gate that maps the c.sub.t-1 to the f.sub.t; W.sub.xo represents an input weight matrix of the output gate that maps the x.sub.t to the o.sub.t, W.sub.ho represents a hidden state weight matrix of the output gate that maps the h.sub.t-1 to the o.sub.t, and W.sub.co represents a memory state weight matrix of the forgetting gate that maps the c.sub.t-1 to the o.sub.t; W.sub.xc represents an input weight matrix for updating the memory state that maps the x.sub.t to the c.sub.t, and W.sub.hc represents a hidden state weight matrix for updating the memory state that maps the h.sub.t-1 to the c.sub.t; and b.sub.i represents a bias value of the input gate, b.sub.f represents a bias value of the forgetting gate, b.sub.c represents a bias value for updating the memory state, and b.sub.o represents a bias value of the output gate.
(39) A full connection layer is used to achieve:
.sub.t=FC(h.sub.t)
where FC( ) represents the full connection layer and .sub.t represents the predicted call time.
(40) The loss function is the mean square error:
(41)
where N represents the number of samples and y.sub.t represents the actual call time, that is, the revised call time. S44: the call time of the controller on each aircraft is calculated.
(42) By analyzing the conflict of route key points, the call content is predicted. By studying possible types of conflicts at the route key points, the system can predict communication needs between the controller and the pilot in advance, thereby preparing and adjust the call content more efficiently to process potential route conflicts. S5: the call interval time in each time period is calculated according to the call time, and the call interval time is output as the call load prediction result of the controller in the area to be predicted.
(43) According to the acquired required call time, the required call time in each time period is counted, then idle time is calculated, the idle time refers to the difference value between unit time and the required call time in the unit time, and the shorter the idle time, the higher the call load; at the same time, the ratio of the idle time to the number of calls is the call interval time, and the shorter the call interval time, the higher the call load of the controller. The call interval time is a main reference standard.
(44) Specifically, a calculation formula of the idle time is as follows:
TT.sub.P=T.sub.r
where T represents the unit time, T.sub.P represents a total of the required call time, and T.sub.r represents the idle time.
(45) Specifically, a calculation formula of the call interval time is as follows:
(46)
where T.sub.i represents the call interval time and C represents a call frequency.
(47) That is, the call interval time in each time period is equal to a difference between unit time and the total call time of the controller in each time period divided by call frequency.
Embodiment 3
(48) As shown in
(49) It can be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the steps of the above method embodiments can be completed by a program to instruct related hardware, the above program can be stored in a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, and when the program is executed, the steps including the above method embodiments are executed; the aforementioned storage medium includes various mediums that can store program codes, such as a mobile storage device, a read only memory (ROM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk.
(50) When the above integrated units of the disclosure are realized in the form of software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can also be stored in a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution essentially or the part contributing to the related art of the embodiments of the disclosure can be embodied in the form of as a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium, and includes several instructions for making a computer device (a personal computer, a server, or a network device) execute all or part of the methods according to the embodiments of the disclosure. The aforementioned storage medium includes various mediums that can store program codes, such as a mobile storage device, an ROM, a magnetic disk or an optical disk.
(51) The above description is merely preferred embodiments of the disclosure, and is not intended to limit the disclosure. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principle of the disclosure should be included in the protection scope of the disclosure.